Future Predictions for Barack Obama’s presidency - Version 2

This was finished today, 6th of July 2011.

So, how have my predictions changed after the past 15 months? Well they're more pessimistic, especially when it comes to the US economy and the federal budget fight. In another year's time I'll probably look back on this and wonder how I got so much so badly wrong, but that's futurology for you. Enjoy!

2011

July – Negotiations over the 2012 federal budget and the raising of the debt ceiling continue but little progress is made. The Republican controlled lower house and the Tea Party movement demand deep cuts of the kind laid out in the ‘Path to Prosperity’ budget proposal made by Paul Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, in April while President Obama and his supporters call for tax increases on the rich, cuts to defense spending and more modest cuts to discretionary spending and programs such as Medicaid.  The Paul Ryan plan calls for $4.4 trillion in spending cuts over a decade while President Obama’s proposal would cut the deficit by $4 trillion over 12 years

July – Rick Perry announces his candidacy for President

July/August – Senators Rand Paul and Ron Johnson filibuster Senate proceedings on multiple occasions but cloture is successfully passed against them several times and so their attempts prove largely fruitless

August – The US treasury resorts to increasingly desperate techniques to prevent the US defaulting on its debt obligations. Several billion dollars worth of US federal government assets are sold off and unorthodox accounting techniques used to delay a default by several weeks. In mid-August congress agrees to a small increase of $180 billion in the debt limit to keep US finances in check until the end of September when the 2011 budget expires and the final 2012 budget is meant to be passed

August – President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen is forced to abdicate power and a National Transitional Council is established. However some of the warring factions refuse to cooperate with the council and violence continues. In Syria hundreds continue to die every month as a brutal crackdown by President Bashar Al-Assad continues

September – Elections are held in Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood and other right-wing parties allied to it winning a large majority of the vote. Some violence occurs with hundreds of people injured and arrested when some demonstrations turn violent

September - Congressional Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling again without a budget being passed. In late-September the treasury announces the first defaults on US debt pledges though little real financial damage has yet been done. The Dow Jones drops 600 points in a day (5% of its value) as global stock markets falter

September – A week later an increase in the debt limit of $800 billion is agreed to by Republican and Democratic leaders in the Senate when the Obama administration agrees to $1.2 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and domestic discretionary spending over 10 years, about $500 billion more than earlier proposed by President Obama yet only half of what the Republicans had demanded in the ‘Path to Prosperity budget’. Cuts to defense of $200 billion over ten years, about half what President Obama had earlier called for and the closing of several tax loopholes to raise about $50 billion more in revenue from richer taxpayers while reducing the tax burden on the middle class by $30 billion is also agreed to. Medicare and Social Security are to remain largely unchanged. Overall $1.5 trillion in cuts over 10 years is the agreed upon outcome. This is much less than the $4 trillion or so promised by Congressional Republicans and the Obama administration when they released their deficit cutting proposals in April

September – In response to the perceived failure of the involved parties to agree to deep enough budget cuts, a trio of Senators, Jim DeMint, Rand Paul and Ron Johnson launch a 24 hour a day filibuster, taking it in shifts of 4 hours. A senate vote to invoke cloture fails with most Democrats and few Republicans voting for it. Public anger at how little the debt deal achieves in either cutting spending or raising taxes on the wealthy sees congress’s approval fall into the single digits for the first time since polling began. President Obama’s approval too sinks from the mid to low 40s. Tea Party rallies are called for by politicians such as Michele Bachmann to be held on Saturday October 1^st. Republicans in the lower house almost unanimously reject the deal and it is deeply unpopular with Democrats as well. After 27 hours and 15 minutes, the longest filibuster in US history, the Republican Senate leadership withdraws from the agreement, demanding deeper spending cuts from the Democrats and the Obama administration

October – The failure of the debt reduction deal sees the US continue to default on its debt obligations and a shutdown of the US federal government with nearly a million non-essential federal workers unable to turn up for work. The Dow Jones drops a further 1000 points in a week and several credit agencies announce they are on the verge of downgrading US debt. Tea Party rallies across the country are attended by almost a million people with 20,000 protesting in Washington DC alone. Various right-wing politicians and pundits including most of the Republican Presidential candidates speak at the protests. Opposing rallies by tens of thousands of left-leaning activists demanding greater tax hikes on the rich and cuts in defense spending also occur. Despite the size of the protests, there are only a handful of arrests and injuries nationwide

October – After a two week shutdown congress agrees to a continuing resolution, that includes $4 billion in spending cuts, to fund the government for another 4 weeks and a raising of the debt limit by another $150 billion to delay the US defaulting on its debt any further until mid-November. However the damage has already been done with Standard and Poor’s downgrading US debt from AAA to AA on October 17^th. Several other credit rating agencies follow suit. The Dow Jones tumbles a further 1500 points in the next few weeks and falls below 8500 by the end of the month despite the passage of the continuing resolution, its most dramatic drop since its 7000 point decline in the 15 months after the global financial crisis began in September 2007

October – After months of fighting Libyan rebels advance on the capital Tripoli and fierce fighting begins in its outer suburbs, Muammar Gaddafi barely holds on to power. In Syria violence subsides after an estimated 3,000 people have been killed and 30,000 arrested with President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime still intact

November – The US unemployment rate climbs to 9.8%

November – Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann lead the Republican candidates in polling and fundraising with about 15% of Republican voters supporting each. Ron Paul and Gary Johnson approach the upcoming caucuses with a fighting chance with about 10% of voters supporting each. Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Tim Pawlenty all poll in the single digits

November – For the second time the government shuts down though another small raise of the debt ceiling is agreed to. A long-term budget agreement still looks unlikely with Congressional Republicans and Congressional Democrats and the Obama administration at an impasse. The shutdown continues until December.

December – Congress passes another continuing resolution to fund government operations, with $10 billion in spending cuts, until the end of February and another raise of the debt limit by $200 billion. Many lament that the new norm in American politics has become not only the passing of regular continuing resolutions instead of annual budgets as has been the case for several years, but also the more frequent passing of raises on the debt limit from about once a year to once a month. Little other legislation is discussed, yet alone passed, in congress while the budget /debt impasse drags on

December - US annual economic growth for the final quarter of 2011 falls dramatically to -2.5%. Talk of another stimulus package is met with great hostility by congressional Republicans

December – Coalition fatalities in Afghanistan for the year total 665, slightly less than in 2010

2012

January – In another assault on Tripoli Libyan rebels manage to occupy the city, Gaddafi accepts a ceasefire deal mediated by the African Union and is exiled to South Africa. 25,000 people have been killed in the year-long civil war. The European Union cooperates with the new government of Libya and aids it in the holding of the first free and fair elections in Libya’s history in mid-2012

February – Michele Bachmann narrowly wins the Iowa caucus with Mitt Romney coming second and Ron Paul third. In a surprise upset Rick Perry wins New Hampshire with Romney coming second and Ron Paul again third. Gary Johnson wins the Nevada caucus with Ron Paul second. Mitt Romney remains in the race but many consider his campaign finished. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Tim Pawlenty withdraw from the race

February – Ron Paul withdraws from the race and announces he will run as an independent on a platform of downsizing government, balancing the budget and adopting an isolationist foreign policy. As a third party candidate he polls at about 15% of the vote, half of which consists of Republicans and the rest Independents and Democrats. He has significant appeal not only from right-wing libertarians but also centrist and left-leaning voters who oppose the War on Terror, the War on Drugs, the Patriot Act and the Wall Street bailouts and wish to see a resolution to the partisan deadlock in Washington

February – In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court rules the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act to be constitutional

March – Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry win multiple state primaries before and during Super Tuesday following which Perry has a significant lead in total number of delegates. Mitt Romney, Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman withdraw from the race, leaving Gary Johnson as the only other serious remaining candidate, having won a handful of states

April – Rick Perry wins in several more state primaries causing Michele Bachmann and Gary Johnson to concede the nomination.

May – Ron Paul announces Gary Johnson has agreed to be his Vice Presidential running mate. The Paul/Johnson ticket is polling at around 20% of the vote against Obama/Biden’s 43% and Perry’s 36%. Many Tea party supporters, disappointed that Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and their other favorites have failed to win the Republican nomination, begin supporting Ron Paul instead of Rick Perry

July - US annual economic growth for the second quarter of 2012 falls further to -5.5% and the unemployment rate climbs to 11%. The US has, partly due to the end of stimulus funds, entered another recession almost as deep as in 2009, the first quarter of which saw -6.8% growth. At the same time the bursting of Britain’s housing bubble triggers further financial crises in Europe. Most European countries which have experienced cautious growth and drops in unemployment over the past year find themselves back in recession with only harsh austerity measures on government spending keeping their economies afloat. Greece and Ireland receive another round of bailouts from the EU and IMF while Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Italy see violent demonstrations as their government’s attempt to introduce severe austerity measures

August – Two weeks before the Republican National Convention Rick Perry announces he has chosen Jon Huntsman to be his running mate. Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann had previously been approached but had rejected the offer as they are instead supporting Ron Paul’s run for the presidency

August – With a 2012 budget never having passed and the debt ceiling having just been raised to $15.4 trillion, an intense debate in congress over the 2013 budget reaches its peak. Rick Perry and Ron Paul both join congressional Republicans in once again calling for deep budget cuts of $5 trillion over the next decade, deeming them ‘essential to preserving the American dream’. The Obama administration refuses to accept more than the $1.5 trillion in cuts agreed upon last year without the end of the Bush Tax Cuts and other tax increases

September – Another government shutdown begins, both sides accuse each other of deliberately continuing the budget impasse to benefit their respective Presidential campaigns. Ultimately the Paul/Johnson ticket benefits most from the continuing deadlock

September – In the first Presidential debate Ron Paul is widely considered to have outperformed Perry and Obama. Nationwide polling stands at Obama/Biden 42%, Perry/Huntsman 32% and Paul/Johnson 25%. Ron Paul is on track to become the most successful third party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt won 27.4% of the vote and 88 electoral votes as a Progressive candidate in 1912. Many conservative pundits and politicians announce their support for Ron Paul over Rick Perry stating that he is a ‘true conservative’ and that American ‘can’t afford another big-government establishment candidate’ which many on the right now perceive Perry to be. He has even been given the nickname ‘Bush 2’, a reference to former President George Bush who is still deeply unpopular even with most right-leaning voters

October – US annual economic growth for the third quarter of 2012 holds nearly steady at -5.2%, the unemployment rate climbs to 12.4%

October – Coalition troop numbers in Afghanistan fall below 100,000, of which about 70,000 are American. About 20,000 US personnel remain in Iraq

October – In the two subsequent Presidential debates and the Vice Presidential debate Perry and Huntsman and generally perceived to have performed poorly while Obama, Paul and Johnson are widely praised. Polling the week before the election shows that support for the Perry/Huntsman ticket has collapsed in favor of Paul/Johnson and now stands at Obama/Biden 42%, Perry/Huntsman 22% and Paul/Johnson 35%

November – Barack Obama is narrowly re-elected President of the United States with 43% of the vote, Ron Paul wins 36.1%, Rick Perry 19.5% and other minor candidates 1.4%. Obama wins 284 electoral votes, Ron Paul 187 and Rick Perry 67. Dozens of House of Representatives seats switch hands with the Democrats ultimately gaining 8 seats for a total of 201 with the Republicans holding a slim majority of 234. The Republicans win Senate seats in Virginia, Montana and Nebraska to bring each party’s share of the Senate to 50 votes each, with only Joe Biden, as the sitting Vice President, able to break a tie vote

(The map below shows this scenario for the 2012 Presidential election and has been generated using the website http://www.270towin.com, blue is Democrats, red is Republicans and grey (undecided) is Ron Paul)

2012 United States Presidential election – Electoral College results

November – Despite Obama’s re-election the government shutdown continues into its third month with Republicans demanding a permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts, which are due to expire at the end of the year, and deeper spending cuts. President Obama refuses to extend the tax cuts further as he did two years earlier and demands additional tax increases. After three months without being paid hundreds of thousands of government workers have begun seeking alternative work but have had little success in a jobs market where unemployment has reached 12%. Protests around the country are attended by millions demanding an end to the budget impasse

December – In the lame duck session of congress Republican leaders finally compromise with President Obama and allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for those earning over $1 million a year, the capital gains tax rate to increase from 15% to 20%, the estate tax to return to 2008 levels and $250 billion in defense spending is to be cut over the next decade. In return the Democrats agree to $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade in Medicaid and domestic discretionary spending. Overall the compromise is predicted to reduce the deficit by $4.2 trillion, or about two-fifths, over 10 years, about half of which is from increases in revenue and the other half spending cuts. The government shutdown ends and an agreement to raise the debt ceiling to $17 trillion eventually, despite repeated filibusters, passes through congress. In response to the successful compromise the Dow Jones jumps from around 7,000 to 8,000 points in the next few weeks

December – Coalition fatalities in Afghanistan for the year total 574, slightly less than in 2011. However much of the decrease can be attributed to coalition troop numbers having decreased from 140,000 to 100,000 over the last year and a half. Many analysts predict the collapse of the Karzai government in 2015 should coalition forces continue with their withdrawal

December – Violent deaths in Iraq total just over 6,000 for the year according to the Iraq Body Count, the highest since 2008. There is concern Iraq is slipping back into a civil war

2013

January – Following his election loss, Ron Paul, now 77, announces his retirement from politics and that he is trusting his son Senator Rand Paul and his former running mate Gary Johnson, as well as the wider Tea Party movement, to carry on his ‘libertarian legacy’ of downsizing government and maximizing the personal freedoms of America’s citizens

July – The US economy emerges from recession after a record 6 quarters of negative growth with 1.4% growth for the second quarter of 2013. The unemployment rate holds steady at 12.5% and the Dow Jones remains below 9,000. The federal budget deficit for the year in on track to surpass $1.3 trillion despite the budget agreement of last December

September – The 2014 budget proposal fails to pass through congress and instead a series of continuing resolutions are passed until the following March. Democrats call for further tax increases and Republicans further spending cuts from those in the agreement passed last December. However there is no repeat of the devastating government shutdown and US debt defaults of the previous year

October – With only 60,000 foreign troops left in Afghanistan Hamid Karzai enters into a power-sharing agreement with the Taliban. Taliban representatives are soon incorporated into Karzai’s government and regional Afghan governments. The Taliban prepare to contest the 2014 Afghan elections the next year. Violence levels in Afghanistan decrease by half within a few weeks, though some areas remain violent as some Taliban splinter groups reject the power-sharing deal

2014

March – A bomber with ‘ties to Al Qaeda groups in Yemen and Somalia’ detonates an explosive device at Grand Central Terminal in New York killing 24 others and wounding 50 others. He is arrested trying to flee into Canada several days later and interrogated and imprisoned. In response President Obama orders the bombing of multiple ‘terrorist training camps’ in Yemen and Somalia. 40 people are killed in the bombings and there is controversy as to how many, if any, were actual terrorists. The Yemeni government demands an apology from the United States

April –Simultaneously Norway, Venezuela, Iran and Russia make announcements concerning the currencies they use in the trading of oil and related products. Each country is to use the other’s national currencies and the Euro to trade oil as well as the American dollar. The announcements cause a major economic realignment. Europe’s economy receives a gradual but huge boost over the next few years as several OPEC countries also break away from the US dollar monopoly on oil and begin trading in Euros. However the effect on the US dollar is immediate, almost 10% of its value is wiped out in just a few months and it remains unstable for the next few years, never regaining its previous economic clout. The inflation rate in the US jumps to 8%. Much criticism if levied at congress and the Obama administration for allowing US economic dominance to fade so rapidly

August – President Obama and Congressional Democrats negotiate a raising of the social security wage base to $180,000 to begin the next year in return for a permanent decrease in the tax rate from 6.2% to 4.2%. The agreement only passes through the Republican lower house because it is revenue neutral, it only shifts the tax burden slightly onto the rich while decreasing it on the middle class. Other negotiations on cutting spending or raising taxes prove fruitless. The deficit for the year is on track to pass $1.1 trillion and total US debt is on track to pass $20 trillion by 2017

September – Following widespread accusations of voter intimidation and fraud in the 2014 Afghan elections Taliban representatives withdraw from the power-sharing deal negotiated by the Karzai government a year earlier. With only 30,000 coalition troops remaining in the country the Taliban launch several offensives toward major Afghan cities including Kandahar. Within a month violence levels have returned to their peak in 2010/11 and Hamid Karzai and many other Afghan government officials have fled the country

October – Unemployment falls back beneath 10%, however the inflation rate nudges 10%

November – In the midterm elections Democrats lose 10 seats leaving them with 191 against the Republican’s 244. The Democrats lose 4 seats in the Senate, giving the Republicans a majority of 54. Many consider Barack Obama to now be running a virtual ‘lame duck’ presidency

2015

March – Aged 72, Joe Biden suffers a heart attack while on a state visit to Australia, though he quickly recovers media speculation abounds that he is too old to run for the Presidency in 2016

April – Ron Paul’s 2012 Vice Presidential running mate Gary Johnson and Florida Senator Marco Rubio announce their candidacies for president and soon emerge as the two most serious Republican contenders. Other candidates include, among others, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty and Scott Brown

May – Maryland governor Martin O’Malley and New York governor Andrew Cuomo, having recently announced their candidacies for President, emerge as the two most serious Democratic contenders. Other candidates include, among others, Kirsten Gillibrand and Rahm Emanuel 

June – China removes most restrictions on the value of the Yuan, meaning the currency has essentially been floated. Chinese economic growth slows from around 10% a year to 6% and global economic growth remains minimal in the aftermath of the global financial crisis partly due to still rising commodity prices, including oil having just passed $140 a barrel, and hesitant financial investment

June – Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, who is a strong US ally and has become deeply unpopular in Pakistan, is assassinated while visiting Pakistan’s north-western frontier province to try and prove it’s ‘evident return to stability’. His death and twin bombings in Islamabad two days later cause turmoil in Pakistan and within a fortnight a senior Pakistani general has taken control of the country in a coup d’etat, ushering in yet another era of military rule. The general forms his own political party, the ‘Pakistan Democratic Party’ and holds rigged elections mid-year, his party winning a landslide victory. The Obama administration is forced to play down the breakdown of democracy in Pakistan and deny reports that the new Pakistani government is cooperating with the Taliban in their takeover of Afghanistan and even increasing its cooperation with China

July – Michelle Obama announces her candidacy for the 2016 Illinois senate election against one term Republican senator Mark Kirk

August – Kabul falls to the Taliban, coalition forces have long since left the city and few remain in the country. Controversy over who is to blame for the failure of the War in Afghanistan and the implications of the Taliban re-establishing their control over the country abounds in the American media

2016

February – Gary Johnson wins the Iowa caucus and Scott Brown wins the New Hampshire primary but Marco Rubio wins most states on Super Tuesday and has soon secured the Republican nomination for President

March – Unemployment falls beneath 7%, the US economy has largely recovered from the global financial crisis though economic growth remains below 3% a year

April – Following an exhaustive primary campaign, Andrew Cuomo secures the Democratic nomination for President

August – Hurricane Igor, the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, causes heavy damage and loss of life in Haiti, Cuba and Florida

August – Marco Rubio chooses Michelle Bachmann to be his running mate. Andrew Cuomo chooses New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand to be his running mate

September – Summer Arctic ice coverage falls below 4 million sq kilometers, smashing the previous record of 5.4 million set in 2012. 2016 is also shaping up to be the hottest year on record so far with global temperatures an average of 0.6C above the 1979-2010 average or about 0.25C above the previous record set in 1998. Combined with Hurricane Igor and various other weather disasters worldwide, the new records spark a fervent debate over how to deal with climate change, but there is little stomach by the Obama administration to address the issue. The Cuomo/Gillibrand ticket promises to introduce a national greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade scheme if they’re elected to the presidency, something Obama promised in his 2008 election campaign

September – The major issues of the 2016 election campaign are balancing the United States budget which is still running up annual deficits of over $800 billion, and both candidates pledge to do by 2030, downscaling the war on drugs which both candidates also pledge to do, dealing with global warming which is acknowledged by the Cuomo campaign though not by Rubio, the rising costs of healthcare with Rubio promising to reform, though not completely repeal, Obamacare and Cuomo promising to introduce a ‘public option’ into congress, and dealing with terrorism and the recent radicalization of the Middle East following the 2010-12 ‘Arab Spring’. Rubio also promises to reform the prison system by ending mandatory minimums laws and accelerating the privatization of prisons and Cuomo promises to ‘engage in a national debate over gay marriage’

November - Michelle Obama defeats Mark Kirk 55% to 44% in the 2016 Illinois senate election, speculation abounds that, much like Hillary Clinton in 2008, Michelle Obama intends to run for the presidency in 2020 or 2024

November – By a wide margin Marco Rubio is elected President of the United States, winning 53.4% of the vote to Andrew Cuomo’s 45.4% in a near reversal of the results of the 2008 election. Rubio wins 386 electoral votes to Cuomo’s 152 in the greatest Presidential electoral victory since 1988. The Democrats gain 12 seats in the House of Representatives for a total of 203 compared to the Republican’s 232. The Democrats also gain 3 seats in the senate leaving the Republicans with a slim majority of 51

2016 United States Presidential election – Electoral College results