Could the Nazis truly have successfully invaded the Soviet Union?

As a big WW2-buff, I'm personally fascinated by this topic. When planning the invasion of Russia the Germans assumed a quick victory like over France, Poland or Greece. This plan was ruined just before Moscow around November-December 1941. Some say this was inevitable in the first place. Others say that the Germans came very close and that with a few better tactical decisions (like heading more directly for Moscow) and better planning (better Winter clothing - not to mention the Reich wasn't fully mobilized for war until early 1943 after Stalingrad) this could have succeeded. I strongly favor the latter view, as the Russians really were losing hopelessly before the winter paralyzed the Germans. After this point the war largely turned into a war of attrition. Again, some say this made the German's defeat inevitable, but this is also a questionable assumption. The Soviet Union's population in 1941 was just under 200 million, and this was with newly seized territories in the Baltic states, Finland, Poland and Romania. Before these, it was about 170 million. Germany was 80 million after seizing Austria, so the manpower ratio is about 2-2.5 to 1 depending on the figures used. Now things get complicated. Romania, Hungary and Finland were Germany's main allies on the Eastern front, and add about 30 million people between them. Italy also sent an army that eventually numbered about a quarter of a million. Italy's total population was an impressive 45 million, but only a fraction of their army was deployed on the Eastern front. If we accept a civilian/soldier ratio of about 10:1, we could add around 3 million to our population estimate.

Spain's fascist regime also sent a volunteer division in which about 30,000 served. Hundreds of thousands of other volunteers/conscripts from across Europe also joined the Wehrmacht or Waffen-SS to fight communism (for instance, about 50,000 from Holland, 20,000 from France, etc - a higher number than many care to admit). Bulgaria was also part of the Axis (with 7 million people) though it didn't sent troops to Russia.
The largest remaining group was the Russians themselves. It was estimated that around a million Russian defectors joined the Axis to fight Stalin's regime. Using the same 10:1 ratio, we'll add 10 million to the Axis population estimate and detract that from the Soviet figure (we'll use the higher one and say 200 million). Adding all this together, we get around 80+30+3+2+10 = 125 million Soviet Union = 200-10 = 190 million We end up with a ratio of about 3:2, hardly an insurmountable figure. The Axis figure could have been even higher if the Italians, Bulgarians or Spanish had contributed more. In fact, they would have slightly outnumbered the Soviets (42+7+25 = 74 + 125 = 199)

There are a number of other variables to alter this 3:2 figure. Significant Soviet forces remained in Siberia throughout the war, despite the deployment of a number of divisions west, to deter any Japanese aggression in the far east. Even larger German forces remained in France, Norway and elsewhere, and were gradually built up as the threat from the western Allies increased. Further questions need to be asked about the quality of the fighting forces. The German Allies (except perhaps the Finns) were no doubt inferior in quality to the Wehrmacht itself, but this was also usually true of the Red Army. Overall, the average Axis soldier was still likely of superior quality (in training, weapons, morale, etc) to the average Soviet.

The big question then is - what was the casualty ratio of the fighting armies as the war dragged on? The first six months of Barbarossa was a complete bloodbath for the Russians. Killed, missing, wounded and captured appears to have been upwards of five million. The Germans suffered 800,000 casualties. Even this doesn't tell the whole story, as only a quarter of the German casualties were killed, missing or captured - or about 200,000, while the same figure for the Russians was about 4 million. So that's a 20:1 ratio of soldiers effectively out of action, or at least 6:1 if we include wounded (presumably the real figure is somewhere in-between, we don't know exactly how many wounded soldiers returned to duty).

In short, the Germans went through the Russians like a hot knife through butter. If anything like this ratio had kept up for the entire war, the Soviets would have run out of men well before the Axis did, no problem. As the fighting dragged on however, the ratio gradually declined. Case Blue (the offensive towards Stalingrad in 1942) saw a ratio of just 2:1. Kursk in 1943 was actually higher, around 4:1, and Bagration in 1944 about 2:1. Even in 1945, when greatly outnumbered, the Germans generally inflicted higher casualties than they received. This also illustrates the vital importance of Stalingrad.

I found the Kursk figures surprising, as by 1943 the number of fighting troops was about 4 million to 7 million in favor of the Soviets, yet at a 4:1 casualty ratio, the Germans might yet have won. Stalingrad was perhaps different due to much of the fighting occurring in Winter, when we know the German's performance suffered considerably, and the fact that many Axis troops were encircled and then captured, which was still a rare phenomenon until the closing stages of the war. This shows that the significance of Stalingrad as the turning point of WW2 has hardly been exaggerated.
The key factors were the severity of Russia's terrain and climate, bitter tactical lessons learned by the Russians (don't get surrounded so easily), improved equipment (including lend-lease), better leadership and so on. These combined to slowly bring down the casualty ratio. Of course, the final factor I haven't mentioned was that before long Germany was fighting a war on two and then three fronts. If say a third of German strength was tied up in Italy and France by 1944, then we need to take 20-30 million off their population figure. This analysis just asks 'could the Germans have beaten the Russians' without taking into account the western allies yet. If Hitler hadn't declared war on the USA in December 1941, he might have been able to win a war of attrition anyway after Stalingrad. The British alone probably couldn't have won in North Africa or Italy, let alone invaded France.

The key fact is that, given a war of attrition and absent the western Allies, the Axis had to inflict a casualty ratio of at least 2:1 on the Soviets to keep winning the war. Once you take the western Allies into account, this number creeps up to about 3:1. After 1941, the Germans rarely were able to achieve this figure and thus lost the war.

The Definitive World War Two Movie Marathon

Since this idea has been nagging at me for ages, I knew I had to make a post about it eventually, so here goes:

1. Battle of Britain (June - September 1940)

Our story starts in the summer of 1940. In less than a year, Nazi Germany has conquered a dozen countries and now controls most of Europe. With the fall of France, Britain and its Commonwealth stands alone against Nazi tyranny. In a desperate battle, the Royal Air Force is able to fight the numerically superior German Luftwaffe to a stalemate in the skies over southern England.

2. Das Boot (October - December 1941)

A year later the war is still raging and a long drawn-out struggle for control of the Atlantic Ocean is taking shape. We follow the exploits of a German U-boat crew as they attempt to sink ships headed for Britain while avoiding the considerable might of the Allied surface navies.

3. Pearl Harbor (December 1941 - April 1942)

At the end of 1941 the Empire of Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, drawing America into World War Two and making the war a truly global conflict. Five months later, the Americans respond with the Doolittle Raid over Tokyo and other Japanese cities.

4. Enemy at the Gates (September 1942 - February 1943)



Russia - 1942. The German armies have penetrated deep into the Soviet Union. In the city of Stalingrad, the defenders slowly wear down the attackers in brutal urban combat. We follow the exploits of the famous sniper Vasily Zaytzev as he fights amid the ruins.

5. The Thin Red Line (December 1942 - February 1943)

Meanwhile, on Guadacanal, the Allies begin their counterattack against the Japanese, slowly pushing them back across the South Pacific.

6. The Great Escape (1943-44)

In the heart of occupied Europe we witness daily life as a prisoner of war. Considering it their duty to disrupt the German's war efforts by any means necessary, a group of allied prisoners plot an audacious escape attempt.

7. Cross of Iron (1943)

Returning to Russia, we see the German armies in full retreat in the aftermath of Stalingrad, as the tide of the war has well and truly changed.

8. Schindler’s List (1942 - 1945)

Back in German-occupied Europe, we see the holocaust in full swing as wealthy industrialist Oskar Schindler attempts to save all those he can from the horrors of the concentration camps.

9. The Longest Day (June 1944)



June 1944 - D-day, the Normandy invasion. The first of some three million allied troops swarm ashore transported by an armada of some seven thousand ships and over ten thousand planes. The western allies finally regain a foothold on the continent, and begin their drive inland towards Germany and the liberation of Europe.

10. Valkyrie (April 1943 - July 1944)

Having witnessed the turning tide of the war, a group of German officers finally unleash their plot against Hitler, hoping to save Germany from complete destruction.

11. A Bridge Too Far (September 1944)



Despite their recent successes, the Allies overreach when they launch the ambitious Operation Market Garden. An attempt by airborne troops to seize bridges over the Rhine River fails, ensuring the end of the war will be postponed to 1945.

12. Patton (February 1943 - 1945)

Initially jumping back a year, we follow the military career of General George S. Patton from his entry into the war in North Africa through to Sicily, France, the Battle of the Bulge and the final push into Germany.

13. Letters from Iwo Jima (February 1945)

Back in the Pacific, the Allies are finally closing in on Japan, but much brutal fighting remains. Told from the Japanese perspective, we witness the conquest of the tiny yet vital island of Iwo Jima.

14. Downfall (April - May 1945)



Berlin - April 1945. As the Red Army fights its way into the German capital, Hitler finally concedes that the war is lost and chooses to commit suicide rather than be captured.

15. Empire of the Sun (1941 - September 1945)

After years of incarceration by the Japanese, a young British boy witnesses the end of the war, including the distant detonation of the atomic bomb over Nagasaki.



So there you go - ta-da!

I'm sure everyone will have a few quibbles with this list. I wanted it to be as close to chronological order as possible, so I agonized over the inclusion of a movie like Patton since it takes place over more than two years. It starts in North Africa and so would follow on perfectly from the battles of Stalingrad and Guadalcanal, but then continues past D-Day and Market Garden up to the closing stages of the war. In the end, I decided it was such a good movie I had to slip it in after A Bridge Too Far. The movie is in two parts, so if you really like, you could just watch Part One before the Longest Day and Part Two after A Bridge Too Far to keep things more in order.

For some events we have several movies to choose from. You could obviously use Saving Private Ryan instead of The Longest Day, however I prefer the latter as it follows all aspects of the battle rather than merely showing the Omaha Beach assault and then following a single squad. It was also a tough choice between Pearl Harbor or Tora Tora Tora. The former certainly runs too long and has the soppy love triangle, but in the end the battle scenes look so epic I can't help but forgive Michael Bay's other flaws as a director. The same could be said of choosing Enemy at the Gates over 1993's Stalingrad, so again, substitute as you will.

Of course, many important aspects of the war are passed over. I really wish Midway (1976) had been a better film for instance, rather than being a B-grade production that borrows footage from sources like Battle of Britain, as it depicts an absolutely pivotal battle. Because of this, we don't witness the destruction of the bulk of the Japanese carrier fleet and simply jump straight to Guadalcanal instead.

The North African campaign probably deserved a film of its own. The most famous ones mostly appear to be black and white ones made back in the 1950's like The Desert Fox (1951) and The Desert Rats (1953) and I couldn't find a decent modern example (I wanted to stick with more modern films, call me a hopeless millennial, but few films made before the 1970's have ever really grabbed my attention). However, we do get a few North African scenes in both Patton and Valkyrie. The Eastern front, given its size, could also have had several more films devoted to it, but here it is the focus of at least three (including Downfall) whilst I recall the Red Army is also seen briefly at the end of Schindler's List.

Downfall I will confidently label one of the greatest war movies ever made, and Bruno Ganz's Hitler has to be the best since...well, the original. It could easily have been the finale, but the fact remains the Japanese held out for longer. I thought it wise to include Empire of the Sun, even if it is not the most well known film here, because it not only shows some of the Chinese theater (which was the second largest in casualties after the Eastern Front) but ends with the main character seeing the distant explosion of Fat Man over Nagasaki in September 1945. I can think of no better ending note.

Certainly dozens of other films could be included here, not to mention other productions. The ten part miniseries Band of Brothers does a superb job of covering the 1944-45 campaign in western Europe. The Pacific later did the same for the Pacific War. I also came across a German miniseries - Generation War that does much the same for the Eastern front, a welcome find.

The list I've given here however, should cover most major aspects of the war including all the major theaters, the war at sea, the war in the air as well as the holocaust. At one film a day, you could complete this in about a fortnight. Though I haven't checked all of them, you can probably find most of these movies here - http://123movies.to/ or on similar video streaming sites.

So get cracking comrades. Good luck, and may we beseech the blessing of Almighty God upon this great and noble undertaking.