Here I've basically made predictions for the remainder of Barack Obama's presidency from the point of view of analysing his approval ratings.
Here http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-presapp0605-31.html you can find a record of the approval ratings of United States presidents dating back to Harry Truman and notes on why their ratings fluctuated and a good source for Obama's current approval ratings can be found here http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/06/jobapproval-obama_n_726319.html.
As you can see, my predictions for the last 15 months aren't wildly wrong, which I'm quite proud of, though I notice some of my predictions for the next few years are now very unlikely or even impossible. Nevertheless, I'm posting this old version before the new one to compare and contrast how an ordinary pundit's political predictions can change over a year of American politics. Enjoy!
2010
April – The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant becomes operational in Iran, however, programs with the plant cause it’s shut down a fortnight later. It opens again permanently in June.
August – While leaving a speaking engagement in Washington, President Obama and his entourage are fired upon by two drug-addicted white supremacists from Georgia. They fire 9 shots and wound one secret service agent before several agents return fire and gun them down. One is killed immediately and the other dies in hospital 7 hours later. The Democratic Party has a field day in presenting the case for stricter gun control laws and that far right-wing conservatives are using violence to make a ‘crude ideological point’. However, the Republicans counter by criticizing the Democrats for taking advantage of the incident to ‘support an ideological agenda’. Obama’s approval temporarily jumps as much as 7 points.
September – President Obama announces the end of combat operations in Iraq, only 50,000 troops remain as peacekeepers, contractors and in other roles to rebuild the long ravaged country. Levels of violence remain fairly steady in 2010 and 2011 (though far lower than in preceding years) and take until 2014 to end completely. The announcement that the Iraq war is effectively over causes President Obama’s and the Democratic Party’s approval ratings to rise by several percentage points.
September/October – Efforts in the congress to combat global warming take centre stage. Having passed the House of Representatives the previous year, the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act’ (which includes an emissions trading scheme) goes through a series of grueling negotiations, amendments and votes in the Senate in a battle similar to the healthcare bill. In late October, following Republican filibusters, hundreds of proposed, adopted and rejected amendments and fierce debates progress is halted by the midterm elections.
November – the Democrats battle their way through the hotly contested midterm elections to maintain a 55 seat majority in the senate, down from 59, and a reduced but still substantial majority in the House of Representatives. However, senate majority leader Harry Reid is voted out of office.
November/December – a fortnight after the midterm elections the Democrats resume their efforts to pass the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act’ through congress. Republican filibusters continue and the act is shelved at the end of the year. However, a smaller bill that includes further restrictions on industrial pollution, a $15 billion investment over 3 years in ‘green’ technologies and significant reductions in government subsidies for oil and coal companies over the next five years passes in a narrow vote. The EPA is also given slightly expanded powers and responsibilities on President Obama’s orders; however his authority without congressional approval is limited.
December – The United Nations climate summit in Mexico leads to a non-binding though slightly more widely adopted agreement than the previous year’s Copenhagen summit. Ultimately little progress is made.
2011
January – Unemployment falls back under 9%.
February – The Obama administration announces that Guantanamo Bay has finally been officially closed. This sparks a fresh political debate over dealing with terrorism.
March –The ‘Philadelphia Train Bombings’ kill 73 when three suicide bombers detonate homemade explosive devices on subway trains in Philadelphia. The resulting investigation and highly controversial trial in civilian courts of several arrested coconspirators, as well as perceived flaws in America’s security and the bombings occurring so soon after the closing of Guantanamo Bay, cause President Obama’s popularity to slip by several points from the mid 50s to high 40s.
April/May – Gay rights take centre stage as the Democrats compile and try to push through congress a bill to expand benefits for gay couples by essentially legalizing gay marriage. The debate rages across the nation as the bill is filibustered by Republicans and the attempt is abandoned in late May. Controversy is also stirred up by right wing politicians and pundits that the sudden debate has been brought on by the Democrats to ‘distract the nation from the Philadelphia bombings’ and the Obama administration’s ‘obviously completely failing policies on dealing with terrorism’. Although flatly denied and ridiculed, the accusations of distracting the nation have some basis in truth.
Mid-year – Total US debt stabilizes at around 100% of GDP, a figure that remains constant for the next few years.
August – Barack Obama celebrates his 50th birthday.
October - Sarah Palin is one of several prominent Republicans who announce their candidacy for the Republican Presidential nominee alongside Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlently and others. Polls have first preference support for Palin and Romney among Republicans in the mid and low 30’s, Huckabee in the low 20’s and with the other candidates in single digits.
October – Unemployment falls back under 8%. With every sign of economic recovery the incumbent President’s approval rises.
December – The United Nations climate summit in South Africa achieves little more than it’s predecessors. Efforts to replace Kyoto with a stronger treaty continue to fail.
2012
March – The last foreign troops leave Iraq for good, with only some observers, advisors and ‘nation building’ organizations remaining. Levels of violence continue to dwindle and Barack Obama’s approval ratings jump several points.
April – Sarah Palin concedes the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney. Romney chooses Tim Pawlently as his Vice Presidential running mate. Polls have voting preference for the Romney/Pawlently ticket at about 43% against Obama/Biden’s 56%.
May – A suicide bomber’s attempt to blow up an airliner heading from Madrid to Boston fails when security screening picks up the concealed device in his luggage. His resulting trial and the attack’s timing so soon after the end of the Iraq war leads to further debate over terrorism that hurts the approval ratings of several western governments, including Obama’s.
June - Unemployment falls back under 7%.
June – President Obama announces significant increases in funding for ‘nation-building’ efforts in Afghanistan, claiming that ‘there have been numerous signs in recent months that the Taliban are losing their resolve to fight.’ He rules out a troop surge or reduction in the near future.
July – Former President Jimmy Carter dies at the age of 87, Obama is among those who attend his funeral.
September - Summer Arctic ice coverage briefly falls to a new record low of 5.4 million sq kilometers. However the upcoming Presidential elections distract most Americans from the news, despite the efforts of green groups and some Democrats to use the opportunity to advocate for climate change legislation. However, the Obama re-election campaign picks up some steam from the news and promises to once again try and introduce a cap and trade plan for America, which Obama calls the ‘greatest disappointment of my first term in office.’
November – President Obama wins a second term in office over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a landslide election. With approval ratings in the high 50s he carries 410 of the 539 electoral votes with 54.1% of the popular vote vs Mitt Romney’s 43.5%, the largest election majority since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984
Obama campaigns on a platform of ‘We successfully ended the Iraq war, pushed healthcare and green energy development legislation through a hostile congress, reformed and strengthened the economy and greatly expanded gay rights. In my second term, my top priorities are ending the war in Afghanistan, abolishing the death penalty and continuing to take much needed action on climate change’
Romney meanwhile campaigns on promises to ‘reverse the big-government policies of the increasingly left-wing Obama administration, which have left the nation with a crippling debt that will take generations to repay.’ However he is considered by many conservatives to be far too left-wing and their support for him wavers throughout the campaign.
The Democrats lose two seats in the senate, their majority decreasing to 53 seats.
December –With Kyoto expiring in 2012, the 2012 United Nations climate summit in Qatar has much riding on its success and it eventually results in a fair replacement of Kyoto. After two weeks of negotiations the ‘Qatar protocol’ is ratified by most United Nations member states including the United States. Due to expire in 2025, the protocol sets requirements for each and every individual country to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a certain percentage by 2025, with interim goals in 2018 and 2022. Part of the agreement continues and expands earlier agreements for richer states to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in green energy and to jointly support green energy programs in poorer countries.
President Obama addresses the conference with one of the most famous speeches of his presidency, where he proclaims ‘This is the defining agreement of our time, the defining resolution of our time, on any subject, counting any previous or ongoing dispute. We will have wind farms in the Andes and Alps, we will have solar arrays in the deserts of Nevada, Egypt and Australia, we will build tidal generators in the inlets of Europe and Japan, we will build geothermal plants around the entire, Pacific ring of fire, we will build nuclear, and perhaps one day fusion power plants, to light up the cities of China, India and America. This is an agreement, with which we can build the infrastructure to power, all of the united nations of Earth. It is an agreement, with which we can work and compete together in harmony and peace, to create a better society for our children and grandchildren, for the present and future peoples of Earth.’
December – Total coalition deaths in Afghanistan for 2012 stand at 433, the lowest figure since 2008.
2013
January - The unemployment rate falls below 6% for the first time since September 2008. Over the next few years it wavers between 6%and 5% as another ‘boom’ cycle naturally takes hold.
February – The Obama administration opens the new year of congress with another incarnation of the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act’ that attempts to introduce a cap and trade plan. The popularity of the plan following the successful Qatar conference helps it pass through the house and senate with wide margins, with several Republicans voting for it. The bill requires 6% decreases in CO2 emissions by 2017, 10% by 2020 and 25% by 2030, after the signing of the bill President Obama’s approval rises several points.
Early/Mid-year- Violence in several African nations including Sudan, Mauritania, Senegal and the Democratic Republic of the Congo causes tens of thousands of deaths throughout 2013. The conflicts receive much media coverage due to the ease with which images and videos of the violence can spread across the internet.
May – Following intensive diplomacy several shaky ceasefires are mediated by the UN and various groups in Mauritania and Senegal stand down as UN aid convoys are sent through and ‘nation building’ begins to take place to stabilize the country and appease the warring parties. President Obama and UN chiefs launch the ‘United Nations Peace Enforcement mission in Mauritania’ and by August UN troop strength in Senegal stands at 14,000, a quarter of the troops are American.
July – The Appropriations bill for the 2014 fiscal year introduced by the Obama administration includes tax increases of 3-5% and some limited spending cuts in several departments include defense and commerce. After much debate and dozens of amendments introduced by both sides the bills pass through both houses of congress with narrow majorities. The ultimate effect of the bill is a reduction in the federal deficit of some 25% for 2014 from $600billion to $450billion. Proposals to introduce a value-added tax (or Fairtax) to the bill are debated and rejected but many Democrats and Republicans agree to ‘debate the issue in the coming months.’
September – The ‘Abolition of Death Penalty Act’ passes the lower house, however the Republicans block the move for weeks in the Senate and a compromise is eventually reached. Each state will hold a referendum in which they can vote to abolish or stick with current capital punishment laws; the referendums are due to be held within six months.
October – Violence erupts in Senegal with insurgent groups warring on the UN supported central government. To stop the fighting some advocates demand intervention by US forces to bring security to the ‘failed state’ and protect UN aid convoys, however the Obama administration refuses and most UN convoys end up being halted in Senegal’s ports for security reasons.
October – Former President George H.W. Bush dies at the age of 89, Obama is among those who attend his funeral.
November – President Obama announces planned troop withdrawals in Afghanistan, with a third of US and about half of the European forces in the theatre to return home by the end of 2014.
December – Amid worsening violence in Senegal and massacres caught live on camera, a groundswell of support in America for military intervention convinces both parties to support the sending of a rapid reaction force to end the violence. By the end of the month 10,000 US soldiers are in Senegal and UN aid convoys are once again getting through to starving rural areas. Some opponents of the intervention characterize it as ‘we went into Iraq, pulled out and then went to Afghanistan, then we pulled out of Afghanistan and now we’re going to Africa!’
2014
January – Levels of violence in Senegal decrease markedly following dozens of American casualties.
February – After five years of the Obama presidency a CSPAN poll ranking American presidents finds Obama ranked 10th, behind Woodrow Wilson and ahead of Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan ranks 8th, Bill Clinton 15th and George Bush 32nd.
February – With four years having passed since the first major healthcare debate and the economy recovering the Obama administration feels the time is ripe for another attempt to introduce a ‘public option’ to provide healthcare services in America. The debate is, surprisingly, not as fierce as the first one with conservative opposition not nearly as vehement.
March – Following over 50 separate referendums the death penalty is abolished in an additional 6 states for a total of 23 out of 50, up from 17 that has already abolished it or not used it since 1976.
March – With over 15,000 US soldiers and some 30,000 UN personnel on the ground in Senegal diplomatic efforts lead to another ceasefire and more intensive ‘Peace enforcing’ and ‘Nation Building’ measures. The successful intervention has two effects on President Obama’s approval ratings, they rise due to the intervention’s success (and constant assurances from the Democrats that ‘we have a comprehensive exit strategy to end the conflict, it will proceed with the swiftness of the 1991 Gulf War, not the 2003 Invasion of Iraq) but waver in the long run due to controversy over Obama’s hesitancy the previous year to intervene at all.
May– A heavily amended bill that does include a public option makes it through both houses and is signed by President Obama into law. Although the Democrat’s approval wavers during the debate, it goes up after the bill is signed while the Republican’s declines. Most of the major reforms introduced by the Democrats and passed in congress in 2010 are in effect by now, and plans for a limited public option to be introduced in 2017 and expanded fully by 2020 are drawn up and begin to be implemented. Notably, 16 Republicans in the House and 3 in the Senate vote for the bill, with most Democrats voting for it as well.
June – Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari is assassinated while visiting Pakistan’s north-western frontier province, attempting to prove it’s ‘evident return to stability’. His death and twin bombings in Islamabad two days later cause turmoil in Pakistan and within a fortnight a senior Pakistani general has taken control of the country in a coup d’etat, ushering in yet another era of military rule. The general forms his own political party, the ‘Pakistan Democratic Party’ and holds rigged elections mid-year, his party winning a landslide victory. The Obama administration is forced to play down the breakdown of democracy in Pakistan, but they can honestly say that efforts to combat the Taliban along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border remain as intense as ever. The new President promises to SecState Hillary Clinton when she visits the country a few weeks after the coup that ‘my government is as determined as ever to rid the peoples of Pakistan and Afghanistan of the Taliban menace.’
July – Coalition commanders announce troop withdrawals in Afghanistan will be postponed by 6-8 months due to a resurgence of violence in the country, partially related to the recent instability in Pakistan. Obama’s popularity slips with many criticizing him breaking his re-election promises to withdraw from Afghanistan during his second term.
August – The withdrawal of American soldiers from Mauritania is completed as UN peacekeepers take over to maintain security in the country.
August – The ‘Federal Deficit Reduction Appropriations bill’ is introduced into congress; the bill includes tax increases including an increase of the top tax bracket rate from 42% to 45% for the 2015 budget and increases in excise and estate taxes. It also includes spending cuts or freezes in most major government departments, particularly Defense, Commerce, State Housing and Urban development and Veterans Affairs. The ultimate effect of the bill is a reduction in the federal deficit by 50% for 2015, down from $450 billion to $200 billion. There are hopes of stabilizing the budget by 2017.
October – Fidel Castro dies aged 88. Within days the Obama administration announces the formation of a diplomatic entourage to Havana to meet with Fidel’s brother Raul Castro, who ascended to the presidency in 2008. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the American contingent and in November talks begin about lifting America’s embargo on Cuba if free and fair elections are held in the country.
November – in the midterm elections the Democrat’s majority in the senate holds steady at 53 seats. The issue of the ongoing talks in Cuba is raised by both major parties. They are viewed negatively by most Republicans and as a positive opportunity by the Democrats.
December – The ‘Havana conference’ results in some concessions from both sides but falls short of its goals of ending the US embargo on Cuba in return for free and fair elections to be held in the country. Raul Castro, who had introduced several reforms to bring greater economic freedom to Cuba then it had under Fidel Castro agrees to speed up and introduce more reforms over the next few years. These include an end to rationing in Cuba by 2020, the raising of income taxes as the main source of government income to replace much of Cuba’s socialist economic system over the next five years and greater freedoms for foreign companies. In return the US travel ban in Cuba is to be lifted by 2017 and some embargo restrictions ended. Questions on whether Cuba will hold free and fair elections at some point in the near future are avoided by the Cuban delegation, and SecState Hillary Clinton has to tell reporters ‘unfortunately not’ when she returns to Washington from the conference.
December - The 2014 United Nations climate summit in Brisbane ends with an additional agreement to limit ongoing deforestation in developing countries, investments by richer countries in green energies like wind and nuclear in tropical counties like Brazil and Kenya are approved.
2015
January - Osama Bin Laden, now 57, is arrested by CIA agents in the Egyptian city of Minya, about 200km south of Cairo. It is gradually revealed he has been hiding in Saudi Arabia for much of the past decade, having left the Afghan-Pakistan border regions in 2005. He has occasionally travelled to several countries such as Egypt and Yemen in recent years making rare appearances at Al Qaeda training camps and extremist Islamic religious schools. A lengthy trial for him and a dozen associates arrested with him begins in the US and President Obama feels confident enough to ‘declare an effective end to our most important mission in Afghanistan.’
March – Aged 72, Joe Biden suffers a heart attack while on a state visit to Australia, though he quickly recovers media speculation abounds that he is too old to run for the Presidency in 2016.
April – President Obama announces a new timetable for withdrawing from Afghanistan, with American troop numbers to decline from their current level of 76,000 to 45,000 by early-2016 and half that again by the start of 2017. European troop numbers are planned to decline from 36,000 to 20,000 by mid-2016.
April – A 25% increase in NASA’s budget over three years is announced by the Obama administration and passes through congress in an appropriations bill. Plans for NASA to return to the moon by 2023 and for a Mars mission to occur by 2030 are expressed as ‘probable’. The announcement comes weeks after Chinese plans for a moon landing by 2025 are announced. Analysts point out that NASA’s increased annual budget of $25 billion is opposing the growing Chinese space agency’s budget of $4 billion, Russia’s of $3 billion and India’s at $2 billion.
July – To test their new JF-17 Thunder fighters and the resolve of the Indian military, the Chinese initiate an aerial skirmish over the disputed region of Arunachal Pradesh along India’s North-Eastern border. In a brief battle lasting less than half an hour the Chinese cause the scramble of an Indian air superiority squadron by violating Indian air space, they then retreat back into China and ambush the pursuing Indian fighters right along the border, 4 Indian fighters are shot down, three are damaged and one Chinese fighter is damaged. All parties immediately ‘urge restraint’, including the UN secretary general and the Obama administration.
August – President Obama announces a departmental reorganization to come into effect the next year. About half of the department of energy, led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the Office of Science, is to be combined with the Environmental Protection Agency to form a new department called the Department of Climate Change and Renewable Energy. It is the first new cabinet level department to be formed in the United States since the Department of Homeland Security was formed by President Bush in 2002.
September – President Obama attends the opening of the Freedom Tower (1 World Trade Center) in New York. The building is opened on the 14th anniversary of the destruction of the original towers in 2001.
November – Joe Biden announces his retirement from politics and that he will not run for the Presidency in 2016.
December - The 2015 United Nations climate summit in Tokyo is preceded by the introduction of emissions trading schemes in Japan and South Korea. Another promise achieved is for most developed countries to phase out ‘heavy pollution’ coal power plants by 2020 and developing countries by 2030.
2016
January – Several prominent Democrats and Republicans announce their candidacies for their party’s nomination for President. Martin O’Malley, Chet Culver, Mark Udall, Robin Carnahan, Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh all campaign for the Democratic nomination as do Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, John Hoeven, David Vitter, Scott Brown, Paul Ryan and Dave Heineman for the Republican nomination.
Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley clinches the Democratic nomination and begins campaigning throughout the country, he chooses Senator Robin Carnahan as his Vice Presidential running mate.
Mitch Daniels clinches the Republican nomination and chooses house minority whip Eric Cantor as his running mate.
March – Following several months of speculation, discussion and voter polling, the Democrats introduce a bill into congress to immediately halt production of the penny and abolish it as legal tender at the start of 2017. It easily passes with over 70% of the vote in both houses.
April – India becomes the fourth nation to independently carry out a manned space mission. There is great media speculation about an ‘Asian space race’ taking off between China, India and other countries.
June – Troop numbers in Afghanistan stand at 27,000 American and 21,000 European soldiers. Both the Republican and Democratic nominees for President support a timetable for withdrawing the remaining troops from the largely stabilized country by the end of 2017, just over 16 years after soldiers were originally sent there early in the Bush Presidency.
August – Hurricane Igor, the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, causes heavy damage and loss of life in Haiti, Cuba and Florida.
September – Summer Arctic ice coverage falls below 4 million sq kilometers, smashing the previous record of 5.4 million set in 2012. Combined with Hurricane Igor, the new record sparks a fervent debate over how to deal with climate change. In response, the Obama administration and the O’Malley/ Carnahan ticket bring out a long since prepared bill to take advantage of public demand for legislation that ‘gets tough on climate change.’ The ‘Climate and Energy conservation Act’ that calls for much stricter pollution limits for vehicles, buildings and industry and further investments in green technologies is introduced into the lower house in October. However most Republicans and many Democrats oppose the legislation and negotiations on it quickly stall. The O’Malley/ Carnahan campaign promises to introduce and sign the act into law if elected to the Presidency.
November – With the economy once again booming and Obama’s approval ratings nudging 60% Martin O’Malley is elected President of the United States on the 8th of November in a fairly close election with 50.3% of the vote, with the Daniels/ Cantor ticket winning 48.6%. The Democrats lose 2 seats in the senate, maintaining a 51 seat majority and a small majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. President O’Malley campaigns on a platform of ‘returning the federal budget to surpluses not seen since the Clinton administration within three years, stabilizing the war-torn nations of Africa through diplomatic and economic engagement and developing the green energy independence America has for so long deserved’
2017
January – The Obama administration releases a report on renewable energy development that estimates wind power provides 7.5%, hydroelectric dams 6.1%, solar energy 1.5% and geothermal energy 0.4% and other renewable sources 0.1% of US electricity generation, for a total of almost 16%. The incoming O’Malley administration vows to raise that amount to 20% by 2020 and 28% by 2025.
February – Hillary Clinton announces her retirement from politics.
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