Wednesday 13 July 2011

Future Tech Tree: 2000-2300

Some more creative futurology here. Anybody a fan of the civilization games? Or nearly any real-time or turn-based strategy game? You’ll notice they usually have ‘tech trees’ detailing exactly what technologies you need to research to produce better units, buildings or abilities. The civilization series had some of the most sophisticated ever produced. Here’s the ‘Middle Ages’ section of the CIV3 Tech Tree for instance-



Now I know tech trees are ussually only for games, but I think they’re often a good approximation for how science advances. An old game I’ve sometimes played is ‘Galactic Civilizations’, which starts in 2178 and has a complicated future Tech Tree you can find here-

http://webpages.charter.net/trevorpowdrell/techtree.htm

So, what am I building up to? Well partly inspired by the GalCiv tech tree (or perhaps frustrated by it, as its quite fanciful and doesn't take itself too seriously, much to my annoynace) here’s my future tech tree prediction for the next three centuries. Its just an intellectual exercise, but I find this stuff quite interesting. Google any terms you don't understand, even wikipedia has some pretty decent science articles.

P.S. the numbers refer to the rough number of years it takes to research that technology, so each image below should take about a century to get through.


By the end of this century I reckon humanity will be using mainly fusion power, constructing and maintaining a wide variety of things at the molecular level with nanobots and that social networking will have progressed to the point where we're basically communicating with each other constantly though what could be called 'telepathy'. We'll have recently started building space elevators, have access to trillions of times the computing capacity that we do now and our life expectancies will have been greatly increased.


By 2200 all humans will have the oppurtunity to be biologically immortal or even download their conciousness into a computer. We'll be building our first starships, initially unmanned or controlled by individuals who've downloaded themselves into computers and powered by antimatter or large-scale 'beam propulsion' and the terraforming of worlds like Mars and Venus might be well underway.



So there you have it. I'm predicting that by the end of the 23rd century much of humanity will have melded with machines and the rest, of their own choosing, will have decided they aren't yet ready for such a drastic change, though most will probably still be greatly enhanced and biologically immortal. We'll be manufacturing our first black hole powered starships capable of approaching light speed, designing our first Dyon Swarms (though they would probably still take millenia to build) and have the ability to create or destroy planets and stars.

Of course all this could be utterly wrong and fanciful. Only time will tell.

Wednesday 6 July 2011

Future Predictions for Barack Obama’s presidency - Version 2

This was finished today, 6th of July 2011.

So, how have my predictions changed after the past 15 months? Well they're more pessimistic, especially when it comes to the US economy and the federal budget fight. In another year's time I'll probably look back on this and wonder how I got so much so badly wrong, but that's futurology for you. Enjoy!

2011
July – Negotiations over the 2012 federal budget and the raising of the debt ceiling continue but little progress is made. The Republican controlled lower house and the Tea Party movement demand deep cuts of the kind laid out in the ‘Path to Prosperity’ budget proposal made by Paul Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, in April while President Obama and his supporters call for tax increases on the rich, cuts to defense spending and more modest cuts to discretionary spending and programs such as Medicaid.  The Paul Ryan plan calls for $4.4 trillion in spending cuts over a decade while President Obama’s proposal would cut the deficit by $4 trillion over 12 years
July – Rick Perry announces his candidacy for President
July/August – Senators Rand Paul and Ron Johnson filibuster Senate proceedings on multiple occasions but cloture is successfully passed against them several times and so their attempts prove largely fruitless
August – The US treasury resorts to increasingly desperate techniques to prevent the US defaulting on its debt obligations. Several billion dollars worth of US federal government assets are sold off and unorthodox accounting techniques used to delay a default by several weeks. In mid-August congress agrees to a small increase of $180 billion in the debt limit to keep US finances in check until the end of September when the 2011 budget expires and the final 2012 budget is meant to be passed
August – President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen is forced to abdicate power and a National Transitional Council is established. However some of the warring factions refuse to cooperate with the council and violence continues. In Syria hundreds continue to die every month as a brutal crackdown by President Bashar Al-Assad continues
September – Elections are held in Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood and other right-wing parties allied to it winning a large majority of the vote. Some violence occurs with hundreds of people injured and arrested when some demonstrations turn violent
September - Congressional Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling again without a budget being passed. In late-September the treasury announces the first defaults on US debt pledges though little real financial damage has yet been done. The Dow Jones drops 600 points in a day (5% of its value) as global stock markets falter
September – A week later an increase in the debt limit of $800 billion is agreed to by Republican and Democratic leaders in the Senate when the Obama administration agrees to $1.2 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and domestic discretionary spending over 10 years, about $500 billion more than earlier proposed by President Obama yet only half of what the Republicans had demanded in the ‘Path to Prosperity budget’. Cuts to defense of $200 billion over ten years, about half what President Obama had earlier called for and the closing of several tax loopholes to raise about $50 billion more in revenue from richer taxpayers while reducing the tax burden on the middle class by $30 billion is also agreed to. Medicare and Social Security are to remain largely unchanged. Overall $1.5 trillion in cuts over 10 years is the agreed upon outcome. This is much less than the $4 trillion or so promised by Congressional Republicans and the Obama administration when they released their deficit cutting proposals in April
September – In response to the perceived failure of the involved parties to agree to deep enough budget cuts, a trio of Senators, Jim DeMint, Rand Paul and Ron Johnson launch a 24 hour a day filibuster, taking it in shifts of 4 hours. A senate vote to invoke cloture fails with most Democrats and few Republicans voting for it. Public anger at how little the debt deal achieves in either cutting spending or raising taxes on the wealthy sees congress’s approval fall into the single digits for the first time since polling began. President Obama’s approval too sinks from the mid to low 40s. Tea Party rallies are called for by politicians such as Michele Bachmann to be held on Saturday October 1st. Republicans in the lower house almost unanimously reject the deal and it is deeply unpopular with Democrats as well. After 27 hours and 15 minutes, the longest filibuster in US history, the Republican Senate leadership withdraws from the agreement, demanding deeper spending cuts from the Democrats and the Obama administration
October – The failure of the debt reduction deal sees the US continue to default on its debt obligations and a shutdown of the US federal government with nearly a million non-essential federal workers unable to turn up for work. The Dow Jones drops a further 1000 points in a week and several credit agencies announce they are on the verge of downgrading US debt. Tea Party rallies across the country are attended by almost a million people with 20,000 protesting in Washington DC alone. Various right-wing politicians and pundits including most of the Republican Presidential candidates speak at the protests. Opposing rallies by tens of thousands of left-leaning activists demanding greater tax hikes on the rich and cuts in defense spending also occur. Despite the size of the protests, there are only a handful of arrests and injuries nationwide
October – After a two week shutdown congress agrees to a continuing resolution, that includes $4 billion in spending cuts, to fund the government for another 4 weeks and a raising of the debt limit by another $150 billion to delay the US defaulting on its debt any further until mid-November. However the damage has already been done with Standard and Poor’s downgrading US debt from AAA to AA on October 17th. Several other credit rating agencies follow suit. The Dow Jones tumbles a further 1500 points in the next few weeks and falls below 8500 by the end of the month despite the passage of the continuing resolution, its most dramatic drop since its 7000 point decline in the 15 months after the global financial crisis began in September 2007
October – After months of fighting Libyan rebels advance on the capital Tripoli and fierce fighting begins in its outer suburbs, Muammar Gaddafi barely holds on to power. In Syria violence subsides after an estimated 3,000 people have been killed and 30,000 arrested with President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime still intact
November – The US unemployment rate climbs to 9.8%
November – Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann lead the Republican candidates in polling and fundraising with about 15% of Republican voters supporting each. Ron Paul and Gary Johnson approach the upcoming caucuses with a fighting chance with about 10% of voters supporting each. Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Tim Pawlenty all poll in the single digits
November – For the second time the government shuts down though another small raise of the debt ceiling is agreed to. A long-term budget agreement still looks unlikely with Congressional Republicans and Congressional Democrats and the Obama administration at an impasse. The shutdown continues until December.
December – Congress passes another continuing resolution to fund government operations, with $10 billion in spending cuts, until the end of February and another raise of the debt limit by $200 billion. Many lament that the new norm in American politics has become not only the passing of regular continuing resolutions instead of annual budgets as has been the case for several years, but also the more frequent passing of raises on the debt limit from about once a year to once a month. Little other legislation is discussed, yet alone passed, in congress while the budget /debt impasse drags on
December - US annual economic growth for the final quarter of 2011 falls dramatically to -2.5%. Talk of another stimulus package is met with great hostility by congressional Republicans
December – Coalition fatalities in Afghanistan for the year total 665, slightly less than in 2010
2012
January – In another assault on Tripoli Libyan rebels manage to occupy the city, Gaddafi accepts a ceasefire deal mediated by the African Union and is exiled to South Africa. 25,000 people have been killed in the year-long civil war. The European Union cooperates with the new government of Libya and aids it in the holding of the first free and fair elections in Libya’s history in mid-2012
February – Michele Bachmann narrowly wins the Iowa caucus with Mitt Romney coming second and Ron Paul third. In a surprise upset Rick Perry wins New Hampshire with Romney coming second and Ron Paul again third. Gary Johnson wins the Nevada caucus with Ron Paul second. Mitt Romney remains in the race but many consider his campaign finished. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Tim Pawlenty withdraw from the race
February – Ron Paul withdraws from the race and announces he will run as an independent on a platform of downsizing government, balancing the budget and adopting an isolationist foreign policy. As a third party candidate he polls at about 15% of the vote, half of which consists of Republicans and the rest Independents and Democrats. He has significant appeal not only from right-wing libertarians but also centrist and left-leaning voters who oppose the War on Terror, the War on Drugs, the Patriot Act and the Wall Street bailouts and wish to see a resolution to the partisan deadlock in Washington
February – In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court rules the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act to be constitutional
March – Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry win multiple state primaries before and during Super Tuesday following which Perry has a significant lead in total number of delegates. Mitt Romney, Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman withdraw from the race, leaving Gary Johnson as the only other serious remaining candidate, having won a handful of states
April – Rick Perry wins in several more state primaries causing Michele Bachmann and Gary Johnson to concede the nomination.
May – Ron Paul announces Gary Johnson has agreed to be his Vice Presidential running mate. The Paul/Johnson ticket is polling at around 20% of the vote against Obama/Biden’s 43% and Perry’s 36%. Many Tea party supporters, disappointed that Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and their other favorites have failed to win the Republican nomination, begin supporting Ron Paul instead of Rick Perry
July - US annual economic growth for the second quarter of 2012 falls further to -5.5% and the unemployment rate climbs to 11%. The US has, partly due to the end of stimulus funds, entered another recession almost as deep as in 2009, the first quarter of which saw -6.8% growth. At the same time the bursting of Britain’s housing bubble triggers further financial crises in Europe. Most European countries which have experienced cautious growth and drops in unemployment over the past year find themselves back in recession with only harsh austerity measures on government spending keeping their economies afloat. Greece and Ireland receive another round of bailouts from the EU and IMF while Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Italy see violent demonstrations as their government’s attempt to introduce severe austerity measures
August – Two weeks before the Republican National Convention Rick Perry announces he has chosen Jon Huntsman to be his running mate. Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann had previously been approached but had rejected the offer as they are instead supporting Ron Paul’s run for the presidency
August – With a 2012 budget never having passed and the debt ceiling having just been raised to $15.4 trillion, an intense debate in congress over the 2013 budget reaches its peak. Rick Perry and Ron Paul both join congressional Republicans in once again calling for deep budget cuts of $5 trillion over the next decade, deeming them ‘essential to preserving the American dream’. The Obama administration refuses to accept more than the $1.5 trillion in cuts agreed upon last year without the end of the Bush Tax Cuts and other tax increases
September – Another government shutdown begins, both sides accuse each other of deliberately continuing the budget impasse to benefit their respective Presidential campaigns. Ultimately the Paul/Johnson ticket benefits most from the continuing deadlock
September – In the first Presidential debate Ron Paul is widely considered to have outperformed Perry and Obama. Nationwide polling stands at Obama/Biden 42%, Perry/Huntsman 32% and Paul/Johnson 25%. Ron Paul is on track to become the most successful third party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt won 27.4% of the vote and 88 electoral votes as a Progressive candidate in 1912. Many conservative pundits and politicians announce their support for Ron Paul over Rick Perry stating that he is a ‘true conservative’ and that American ‘can’t afford another big-government establishment candidate’ which many on the right now perceive Perry to be. He has even been given the nickname ‘Bush 2’, a reference to former President George Bush who is still deeply unpopular even with most right-leaning voters
October – US annual economic growth for the third quarter of 2012 holds nearly steady at -5.2%, the unemployment rate climbs to 12.4%
October – Coalition troop numbers in Afghanistan fall below 100,000, of which about 70,000 are American. About 20,000 US personnel remain in Iraq
October – In the two subsequent Presidential debates and the Vice Presidential debate Perry and Huntsman and generally perceived to have performed poorly while Obama, Paul and Johnson are widely praised. Polling the week before the election shows that support for the Perry/Huntsman ticket has collapsed in favor of Paul/Johnson and now stands at Obama/Biden 42%, Perry/Huntsman 22% and Paul/Johnson 35%
November – Barack Obama is narrowly re-elected President of the United States with 43% of the vote, Ron Paul wins 36.1%, Rick Perry 19.5% and other minor candidates 1.4%. Obama wins 284 electoral votes, Ron Paul 187 and Rick Perry 67. Dozens of House of Representatives seats switch hands with the Democrats ultimately gaining 8 seats for a total of 201 with the Republicans holding a slim majority of 234. The Republicans win Senate seats in Virginia, Montana and Nebraska to bring each party’s share of the Senate to 50 votes each, with only Joe Biden, as the sitting Vice President, able to break a tie vote
(The map below shows this scenario for the 2012 Presidential election and has been generated using the website http://www.270towin.com, blue is Democrats, red is Republicans and grey (undecided) is Ron Paul)
2012 United States Presidential election – Electoral College results
November – Despite Obama’s re-election the government shutdown continues into its third month with Republicans demanding a permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts, which are due to expire at the end of the year, and deeper spending cuts. President Obama refuses to extend the tax cuts further as he did two years earlier and demands additional tax increases. After three months without being paid hundreds of thousands of government workers have begun seeking alternative work but have had little success in a jobs market where unemployment has reached 12%. Protests around the country are attended by millions demanding an end to the budget impasse
December – In the lame duck session of congress Republican leaders finally compromise with President Obama and allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for those earning over $1 million a year, the capital gains tax rate to increase from 15% to 20%, the estate tax to return to 2008 levels and $250 billion in defense spending is to be cut over the next decade. In return the Democrats agree to $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade in Medicaid and domestic discretionary spending. Overall the compromise is predicted to reduce the deficit by $4.2 trillion, or about two-fifths, over 10 years, about half of which is from increases in revenue and the other half spending cuts. The government shutdown ends and an agreement to raise the debt ceiling to $17 trillion eventually, despite repeated filibusters, passes through congress. In response to the successful compromise the Dow Jones jumps from around 7,000 to 8,000 points in the next few weeks
December – Coalition fatalities in Afghanistan for the year total 574, slightly less than in 2011. However much of the decrease can be attributed to coalition troop numbers having decreased from 140,000 to 100,000 over the last year and a half. Many analysts predict the collapse of the Karzai government in 2015 should coalition forces continue with their withdrawal
December – Violent deaths in Iraq total just over 6,000 for the year according to the Iraq Body Count, the highest since 2008. There is concern Iraq is slipping back into a civil war
2013
January – Following his election loss, Ron Paul, now 77, announces his retirement from politics and that he is trusting his son Senator Rand Paul and his former running mate Gary Johnson, as well as the wider Tea Party movement, to carry on his ‘libertarian legacy’ of downsizing government and maximizing the personal freedoms of America’s citizens
July – The US economy emerges from recession after a record 6 quarters of negative growth with 1.4% growth for the second quarter of 2013. The unemployment rate holds steady at 12.5% and the Dow Jones remains below 9,000. The federal budget deficit for the year in on track to surpass $1.3 trillion despite the budget agreement of last December
September – The 2014 budget proposal fails to pass through congress and instead a series of continuing resolutions are passed until the following March. Democrats call for further tax increases and Republicans further spending cuts from those in the agreement passed last December. However there is no repeat of the devastating government shutdown and US debt defaults of the previous year
October – With only 60,000 foreign troops left in Afghanistan Hamid Karzai enters into a power-sharing agreement with the Taliban. Taliban representatives are soon incorporated into Karzai’s government and regional Afghan governments. The Taliban prepare to contest the 2014 Afghan elections the next year. Violence levels in Afghanistan decrease by half within a few weeks, though some areas remain violent as some Taliban splinter groups reject the power-sharing deal
2014
March – A bomber with ‘ties to Al Qaeda groups in Yemen and Somalia’ detonates an explosive device at Grand Central Terminal in New York killing 24 others and wounding 50 others. He is arrested trying to flee into Canada several days later and interrogated and imprisoned. In response President Obama orders the bombing of multiple ‘terrorist training camps’ in Yemen and Somalia. 40 people are killed in the bombings and there is controversy as to how many, if any, were actual terrorists. The Yemeni government demands an apology from the United States

April –Simultaneously Norway, Venezuela, Iran and Russia make announcements concerning the currencies they use in the trading of oil and related products. Each country is to use the other’s national currencies and the Euro to trade oil as well as the American dollar. The announcements cause a major economic realignment. Europe’s economy receives a gradual but huge boost over the next few years as several OPEC countries also break away from the US dollar monopoly on oil and begin trading in Euros. However the effect on the US dollar is immediate, almost 10% of its value is wiped out in just a few months and it remains unstable for the next few years, never regaining its previous economic clout. The inflation rate in the US jumps to 8%. Much criticism if levied at congress and the Obama administration for allowing US economic dominance to fade so rapidly
August – President Obama and Congressional Democrats negotiate a raising of the social security wage base to $180,000 to begin the next year in return for a permanent decrease in the tax rate from 6.2% to 4.2%. The agreement only passes through the Republican lower house because it is revenue neutral, it only shifts the tax burden slightly onto the rich while decreasing it on the middle class. Other negotiations on cutting spending or raising taxes prove fruitless. The deficit for the year is on track to pass $1.1 trillion and total US debt is on track to pass $20 trillion by 2017
September – Following widespread accusations of voter intimidation and fraud in the 2014 Afghan elections Taliban representatives withdraw from the power-sharing deal negotiated by the Karzai government a year earlier. With only 30,000 coalition troops remaining in the country the Taliban launch several offensives toward major Afghan cities including Kandahar. Within a month violence levels have returned to their peak in 2010/11 and Hamid Karzai and many other Afghan government officials have fled the country
October – Unemployment falls back beneath 10%, however the inflation rate nudges 10%

November – In the midterm elections Democrats lose 10 seats leaving them with 191 against the Republican’s 244. The Democrats lose 4 seats in the Senate, giving the Republicans a majority of 54. Many consider Barack Obama to now be running a virtual ‘lame duck’ presidency
2015
March – Aged 72, Joe Biden suffers a heart attack while on a state visit to Australia, though he quickly recovers media speculation abounds that he is too old to run for the Presidency in 2016
April – Ron Paul’s 2012 Vice Presidential running mate Gary Johnson and Florida Senator Marco Rubio announce their candidacies for president and soon emerge as the two most serious Republican contenders. Other candidates include, among others, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty and Scott Brown
May – Maryland governor Martin O’Malley and New York governor Andrew Cuomo, having recently announced their candidacies for President, emerge as the two most serious Democratic contenders. Other candidates include, among others, Kirsten Gillibrand and Rahm Emanuel 
June – China removes most restrictions on the value of the Yuan, meaning the currency has essentially been floated. Chinese economic growth slows from around 10% a year to 6% and global economic growth remains minimal in the aftermath of the global financial crisis partly due to still rising commodity prices, including oil having just passed $140 a barrel, and hesitant financial investment
June – Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, who is a strong US ally and has become deeply unpopular in Pakistan, is assassinated while visiting Pakistan’s north-western frontier province to try and prove it’s ‘evident return to stability’. His death and twin bombings in Islamabad two days later cause turmoil in Pakistan and within a fortnight a senior Pakistani general has taken control of the country in a coup d’etat, ushering in yet another era of military rule. The general forms his own political party, the ‘Pakistan Democratic Party’ and holds rigged elections mid-year, his party winning a landslide victory. The Obama administration is forced to play down the breakdown of democracy in Pakistan and deny reports that the new Pakistani government is cooperating with the Taliban in their takeover of Afghanistan and even increasing its cooperation with China
July – Michelle Obama announces her candidacy for the 2016 Illinois senate election against one term Republican senator Mark Kirk
August – Kabul falls to the Taliban, coalition forces have long since left the city and few remain in the country. Controversy over who is to blame for the failure of the War in Afghanistan and the implications of the Taliban re-establishing their control over the country abounds in the American media
2016
February – Gary Johnson wins the Iowa caucus and Scott Brown wins the New Hampshire primary but Marco Rubio wins most states on Super Tuesday and has soon secured the Republican nomination for President
March – Unemployment falls beneath 7%, the US economy has largely recovered from the global financial crisis though economic growth remains below 3% a year
April – Following an exhaustive primary campaign, Andrew Cuomo secures the Democratic nomination for President
August – Hurricane Igor, the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, causes heavy damage and loss of life in Haiti, Cuba and Florida
August – Marco Rubio chooses Michelle Bachmann to be his running mate. Andrew Cuomo chooses New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand to be his running mate
September – Summer Arctic ice coverage falls below 4 million sq kilometers, smashing the previous record of 5.4 million set in 2012. 2016 is also shaping up to be the hottest year on record so far with global temperatures an average of 0.6C above the 1979-2010 average or about 0.25C above the previous record set in 1998. Combined with Hurricane Igor and various other weather disasters worldwide, the new records spark a fervent debate over how to deal with climate change, but there is little stomach by the Obama administration to address the issue. The Cuomo/Gillibrand ticket promises to introduce a national greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade scheme if they’re elected to the presidency, something Obama promised in his 2008 election campaign
September – The major issues of the 2016 election campaign are balancing the United States budget which is still running up annual deficits of over $800 billion, and both candidates pledge to do by 2030, downscaling the war on drugs which both candidates also pledge to do, dealing with global warming which is acknowledged by the Cuomo campaign though not by Rubio, the rising costs of healthcare with Rubio promising to reform, though not completely repeal, Obamacare and Cuomo promising to introduce a ‘public option’ into congress, and dealing with terrorism and the recent radicalization of the Middle East following the 2010-12 ‘Arab Spring’. Rubio also promises to reform the prison system by ending mandatory minimums laws and accelerating the privatization of prisons and Cuomo promises to ‘engage in a national debate over gay marriage’
November - Michelle Obama defeats Mark Kirk 55% to 44% in the 2016 Illinois senate election, speculation abounds that, much like Hillary Clinton in 2008, Michelle Obama intends to run for the presidency in 2020 or 2024
November – By a wide margin Marco Rubio is elected President of the United States, winning 53.4% of the vote to Andrew Cuomo’s 45.4% in a near reversal of the results of the 2008 election. Rubio wins 386 electoral votes to Cuomo’s 152 in the greatest Presidential electoral victory since 1988. The Democrats gain 12 seats in the House of Representatives for a total of 203 compared to the Republican’s 232. The Democrats also gain 3 seats in the senate leaving the Republicans with a slim majority of 51
2016 United States Presidential election – Electoral College results
 

Monday 4 July 2011

Future Predictions for Barack Obama’s presidency

I wrote this up quite a while ago, in fact I finished it on the 31/3/2010, over a year ago. I'm going to post an updated version in a similiar format soon since a lot has changed in the past 15 months.

Here I've basically made predictions for the remainder of Barack Obama's presidency from the point of view of analysing his approval ratings.


Here http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-presapp0605-31.html you can find a record of the approval ratings of United States presidents dating back to Harry Truman and notes on why their ratings fluctuated and a good source for Obama's current approval ratings can be found here http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/06/jobapproval-obama_n_726319.html.

As you can see, my predictions for the last 15 months aren't wildly wrong, which I'm quite proud of, though I notice some of my predictions for the next few years are now very unlikely or even impossible. Nevertheless, I'm posting this old version before the new one to compare and contrast how an ordinary pundit's political predictions can change over a year of American politics. Enjoy!



2010

April – The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant becomes operational in Iran, however, programs with the plant cause it’s shut down a fortnight later. It opens again permanently in June.
August – While leaving a speaking engagement in Washington, President Obama and his entourage are fired upon by two drug-addicted white supremacists from Georgia. They fire 9 shots and wound one secret service agent before several agents return fire and gun them down. One is killed immediately and the other dies in hospital 7 hours later. The Democratic Party has a field day in presenting the case for stricter gun control laws and that far right-wing conservatives are using violence to make a ‘crude ideological point’. However, the Republicans counter by criticizing the Democrats for taking advantage of the incident to ‘support an ideological agenda’. Obama’s approval temporarily jumps as much as 7 points.
September – President Obama announces the end of combat operations in Iraq, only 50,000 troops remain as peacekeepers, contractors and in other roles to rebuild the long ravaged country. Levels of violence remain fairly steady in 2010 and 2011 (though far lower than in preceding years) and take until 2014 to end completely. The announcement that the Iraq war is effectively over causes President Obama’s and the Democratic Party’s approval ratings to rise by several percentage points.
September/October – Efforts in the congress to combat global warming take centre stage. Having passed the House of Representatives the previous year, the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act’ (which includes an emissions trading scheme) goes through a series of grueling negotiations, amendments and votes in the Senate in a battle similar to the healthcare bill. In late October, following Republican filibusters, hundreds of proposed, adopted and rejected amendments and fierce debates progress is halted by the midterm elections.
November – the Democrats battle their way through the hotly contested midterm elections to maintain a 55 seat majority in the senate, down from 59, and a reduced but still substantial majority in the House of Representatives. However, senate majority leader Harry Reid is voted out of office.
November/December – a fortnight after the midterm elections the Democrats resume their efforts to pass the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act’ through congress. Republican filibusters continue and the act is shelved at the end of the year. However, a smaller bill that includes further restrictions on industrial pollution, a $15 billion investment over 3 years in ‘green’ technologies and significant reductions in government subsidies for oil and coal companies over the next five years passes in a narrow vote. The EPA is also given slightly expanded powers and responsibilities on President Obama’s orders; however his authority without congressional approval is limited.
December – The United Nations climate summit in Mexico leads to a non-binding though slightly more widely adopted agreement than the previous year’s Copenhagen summit. Ultimately little progress is made.
2011
January – Unemployment falls back under 9%.
February – The Obama administration announces that Guantanamo Bay has finally been officially closed. This sparks a fresh political debate over dealing with terrorism.
March –The ‘Philadelphia Train Bombings’ kill 73 when three suicide bombers detonate homemade explosive devices on subway trains in Philadelphia. The resulting investigation and highly controversial trial in civilian courts of several arrested coconspirators, as well as perceived flaws in America’s security and the bombings occurring so soon after the closing of Guantanamo Bay, cause President Obama’s popularity to slip by several points from the mid 50s to high 40s.
April/May – Gay rights take centre stage as the Democrats compile and try to push through congress a bill to expand benefits for gay couples by essentially legalizing gay marriage. The debate rages across the nation as the bill is filibustered by Republicans and the attempt is abandoned in late May. Controversy is also stirred up by right wing politicians and pundits that the sudden debate has been brought on by the Democrats to ‘distract the nation from the Philadelphia bombings’ and the Obama administration’s ‘obviously completely failing policies on dealing with terrorism’. Although flatly denied and ridiculed, the accusations of distracting the nation have some basis in truth.
Mid-year – Total US debt stabilizes at around 100% of GDP, a figure that remains constant for the next few years.
August – Barack Obama celebrates his 50th birthday.
October - Sarah Palin is one of several prominent Republicans who announce their candidacy for the Republican Presidential nominee alongside Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlently and others. Polls have first preference support for Palin and Romney among Republicans in the mid and low 30’s, Huckabee in the low 20’s and with the other candidates in single digits.
October – Unemployment falls back under 8%. With every sign of economic recovery the incumbent President’s approval rises.
December – The United Nations climate summit in South Africa achieves little more than it’s predecessors. Efforts to replace Kyoto with a stronger treaty continue to fail.
2012
March – The last foreign troops leave Iraq for good, with only some observers, advisors and ‘nation building’ organizations remaining. Levels of violence continue to dwindle and Barack Obama’s approval ratings jump several points.
April – Sarah Palin concedes the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney. Romney chooses Tim Pawlently as his Vice Presidential running mate. Polls have voting preference for the Romney/Pawlently ticket at about 43% against Obama/Biden’s 56%.
May – A suicide bomber’s attempt to blow up an airliner heading from Madrid to Boston fails when security screening picks up the concealed device in his luggage. His resulting trial and the attack’s timing so soon after the end of the Iraq war leads to further debate over terrorism that hurts the approval ratings of several western governments, including Obama’s.
June - Unemployment falls back under 7%.
June – President Obama announces significant increases in funding for ‘nation-building’ efforts in Afghanistan, claiming that ‘there have been numerous signs in recent months that the Taliban are losing their resolve to fight.’ He rules out a troop surge or reduction in the near future.
July – Former President Jimmy Carter dies at the age of 87, Obama is among those who attend his funeral.
September - Summer Arctic ice coverage briefly falls to a new record low of 5.4 million sq kilometers. However the upcoming Presidential elections distract most Americans from the news, despite the efforts of green groups and some Democrats to use the opportunity to advocate for climate change legislation. However, the Obama re-election campaign picks up some steam from the news and promises to once again try and introduce a cap and trade plan for America, which Obama calls the ‘greatest disappointment of my first term in office.’
November – President Obama wins a second term in office over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a landslide election. With approval ratings in the high 50s he carries 410 of the 539 electoral votes with 54.1% of the popular vote vs Mitt Romney’s 43.5%, the largest election majority since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984
Obama campaigns on a platform of ‘We successfully ended the Iraq war, pushed healthcare and green energy development legislation through a hostile congress, reformed and strengthened the economy and greatly expanded gay rights. In my second term, my top priorities are ending the war in Afghanistan, abolishing the death penalty and continuing to take much needed action on climate change’
Romney meanwhile campaigns on promises to ‘reverse the big-government policies of the increasingly left-wing Obama administration, which have left the nation with a crippling debt that will take generations to repay.’ However he is considered by many conservatives to be far too left-wing and their support for him wavers throughout the campaign.
The Democrats lose two seats in the senate, their majority decreasing to 53 seats.
December –With Kyoto expiring in 2012, the 2012 United Nations climate summit in Qatar has much riding on its success and it eventually results in a fair replacement of Kyoto. After two weeks of negotiations the ‘Qatar protocol’ is ratified by most United Nations member states including the United States. Due to expire in 2025, the protocol sets requirements for each and every individual country to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a certain percentage by 2025, with interim goals in 2018 and 2022. Part of the agreement continues and expands earlier agreements for richer states to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in green energy and to jointly support green energy programs in poorer countries.
President Obama addresses the conference with one of the most famous speeches of his presidency, where he proclaims ‘This is the defining agreement of our time, the defining resolution of our time, on any subject, counting any previous or ongoing dispute. We will have wind farms in the Andes and Alps, we will have solar arrays in the deserts of Nevada, Egypt and Australia, we will build tidal generators in the inlets of Europe and Japan, we will build geothermal plants around the entire, Pacific ring of fire, we will build nuclear, and perhaps one day fusion power plants, to light up the cities of China, India and America. This is an agreement, with which we can build the infrastructure to power, all of the united nations of Earth. It is an agreement, with which we can work and compete together in harmony and peace, to create a better society for our children and grandchildren, for the present and future peoples of Earth.’  
December – Total coalition deaths in Afghanistan for 2012 stand at 433, the lowest figure since 2008.

2013
January - The unemployment rate falls below 6% for the first time since September 2008. Over the next few years it wavers between 6%and 5% as another ‘boom’ cycle naturally takes hold.
February – The Obama administration opens the new year of congress with another incarnation of the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act’ that attempts to introduce a cap and trade plan. The popularity of the plan following the successful Qatar conference helps it pass through the house and senate with wide margins, with several Republicans voting for it. The bill requires 6% decreases in CO2 emissions by 2017, 10% by 2020 and 25% by 2030, after the signing of the bill President Obama’s approval rises several points.
Early/Mid-year- Violence in several African nations including Sudan, Mauritania, Senegal and the Democratic Republic of the Congo causes tens of thousands of deaths throughout 2013. The conflicts receive much media coverage due to the ease with which images and videos of the violence can spread across the internet.
May – Following intensive diplomacy several shaky ceasefires are mediated by the UN and various groups in Mauritania and Senegal stand down as UN aid convoys are sent through and ‘nation building’ begins to take place to stabilize the country and appease the warring parties. President Obama and UN chiefs launch the ‘United Nations Peace Enforcement mission in Mauritania’ and by August UN troop strength in Senegal stands at 14,000, a quarter of the troops are American.   
July – The Appropriations bill for the 2014 fiscal year introduced by the Obama administration includes tax increases of 3-5% and some limited spending cuts in several departments include defense and commerce. After much debate and dozens of amendments introduced by both sides the bills pass through both houses of congress with narrow majorities. The ultimate effect of the bill is a reduction in the federal deficit of some 25% for 2014 from $600billion to $450billion. Proposals to introduce a value-added tax (or Fairtax) to the bill are debated and rejected but many Democrats and Republicans agree to ‘debate the issue in the coming months.’
September – The ‘Abolition of Death Penalty Act’ passes the lower house, however the Republicans block the move for weeks in the Senate and a compromise is eventually reached. Each state will hold a referendum in which they can vote to abolish or stick with current capital punishment laws; the referendums are due to be held within six months.
October – Violence erupts in Senegal with insurgent groups warring on the UN supported central government. To stop the fighting some advocates demand intervention by US forces to bring security to the ‘failed state’ and protect UN aid convoys, however the Obama administration refuses and most UN convoys end up being halted in Senegal’s ports for security reasons.
October – Former President George H.W. Bush dies at the age of 89, Obama is among those who attend his funeral.
November – President Obama announces planned troop withdrawals in Afghanistan, with a third of US and about half of the European forces in the theatre to return home by the end of 2014.
December – Amid worsening violence in Senegal and massacres caught live on camera, a groundswell of support in America for military intervention convinces both parties to support the sending of a rapid reaction force to end the violence. By the end of the month 10,000 US soldiers are in Senegal and UN aid convoys are once again getting through to starving rural areas. Some opponents of the intervention characterize it as ‘we went into Iraq, pulled out and then went to Afghanistan, then we pulled out of Afghanistan and now we’re going to Africa!’
2014
January – Levels of violence in Senegal decrease markedly following dozens of American casualties.
February – After five years of the Obama presidency a CSPAN poll ranking American presidents finds Obama ranked 10th, behind Woodrow Wilson and ahead of Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan ranks 8th, Bill Clinton 15th and George Bush 32nd.
February – With four years having passed since the first major healthcare debate and the economy recovering the Obama administration feels the time is ripe for another attempt to introduce a ‘public option’ to provide healthcare services in America. The debate is, surprisingly, not as fierce as the first one with conservative opposition not nearly as vehement.
March – Following over 50 separate referendums the death penalty is abolished in an additional 6 states for a total of 23 out of 50, up from 17 that has already abolished it or not used it since 1976.
March – With over 15,000 US soldiers and some 30,000 UN personnel on the ground in Senegal diplomatic efforts lead to another ceasefire and more intensive ‘Peace enforcing’ and ‘Nation Building’ measures. The successful intervention has two effects on President Obama’s approval ratings, they rise due to the intervention’s success (and constant assurances from the Democrats that ‘we have a comprehensive exit strategy to end the conflict, it will proceed with the swiftness of the 1991 Gulf War, not the 2003 Invasion of Iraq) but waver in the long run due to controversy over Obama’s hesitancy the previous year to intervene at all.
May– A heavily amended bill that does include a public option makes it through both houses and is signed by President Obama into law. Although the Democrat’s approval wavers during the debate, it goes up after the bill is signed while the Republican’s declines. Most of the major reforms introduced by the Democrats and passed in congress in 2010 are in effect by now, and plans for a limited public option to be introduced in 2017 and expanded fully by 2020 are drawn up and begin to be implemented. Notably, 16 Republicans in the House and 3 in the Senate vote for the bill, with most Democrats voting for it as well.
June – Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari is assassinated while visiting Pakistan’s north-western frontier province, attempting to prove it’s ‘evident return to stability’. His death and twin bombings in Islamabad two days later cause turmoil in Pakistan and within a fortnight a senior Pakistani general has taken control of the country in a coup d’etat, ushering in yet another era of military rule. The general forms his own political party, the ‘Pakistan Democratic Party’ and holds rigged elections mid-year, his party winning a landslide victory. The Obama administration is forced to play down the breakdown of democracy in Pakistan, but they can honestly say that efforts to combat the Taliban along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border remain as intense as ever. The new President promises to SecState Hillary Clinton when she visits the country a few weeks after the coup that ‘my government is as determined as ever to rid the peoples of Pakistan and Afghanistan of the Taliban menace.’
July – Coalition commanders announce troop withdrawals in Afghanistan will be postponed by 6-8 months due to a resurgence of violence in the country, partially related to the recent instability in Pakistan. Obama’s popularity slips with many criticizing him breaking his re-election promises to withdraw from Afghanistan during his second term.
August – The withdrawal of American soldiers from Mauritania is completed as UN peacekeepers take over to maintain security in the country.
August – The ‘Federal Deficit Reduction Appropriations bill’ is introduced into congress; the bill includes tax increases including an increase of the top tax bracket rate from 42% to 45% for the 2015 budget and increases in excise and estate taxes. It also includes spending cuts or freezes in most major government departments, particularly Defense, Commerce, State Housing and Urban development and Veterans Affairs. The ultimate effect of the bill is a reduction in the federal deficit by 50% for 2015, down from $450 billion to $200 billion. There are hopes of stabilizing the budget by 2017.
October – Fidel Castro dies aged 88. Within days the Obama administration announces the formation of a diplomatic entourage to Havana to meet with Fidel’s brother Raul Castro, who ascended to the presidency in 2008. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the American contingent and in November talks begin about lifting America’s embargo on Cuba if free and fair elections are held in the country.
November – in the midterm elections the Democrat’s majority in the senate holds steady at 53 seats. The issue of the ongoing talks in Cuba is raised by both major parties. They are viewed negatively by most Republicans and as a positive opportunity by the Democrats.
December – The ‘Havana conference’ results in some concessions from both sides but falls short of its goals of ending the US embargo on Cuba in return for free and fair elections to be held in the country. Raul Castro, who had introduced several reforms to bring greater economic freedom to Cuba then it had under Fidel Castro agrees to speed up and introduce more reforms over the next few years. These include an end to rationing in Cuba by 2020, the raising of income taxes as the main source of government income to replace much of Cuba’s socialist economic system over the next five years and greater freedoms for foreign companies. In return the US travel ban in Cuba is to be lifted by 2017 and some embargo restrictions ended. Questions on whether Cuba will hold free and fair elections at some point in the near future are avoided by the Cuban delegation, and SecState Hillary Clinton has to tell reporters ‘unfortunately not’ when she returns to Washington from the conference.
December - The 2014 United Nations climate summit in Brisbane ends with an additional agreement to limit ongoing deforestation in developing countries, investments by richer countries in green energies like wind and nuclear in tropical counties like Brazil and Kenya are approved.
2015
January - Osama Bin Laden, now 57, is arrested by CIA agents in the Egyptian city of Minya, about 200km south of Cairo. It is gradually revealed he has been hiding in Saudi Arabia for much of the past decade, having left the Afghan-Pakistan border regions in 2005. He has occasionally travelled to several countries such as Egypt and Yemen in recent years making rare appearances at Al Qaeda training camps and extremist Islamic religious schools. A lengthy trial for him and a dozen associates arrested with him begins in the US and President Obama feels confident enough to ‘declare an effective end to our most important mission in Afghanistan.’
March – Aged 72, Joe Biden suffers a heart attack while on a state visit to Australia, though he quickly recovers media speculation abounds that he is too old to run for the Presidency in 2016.
April – President Obama announces a new timetable for withdrawing from Afghanistan, with American troop numbers to decline from their current level of 76,000 to 45,000 by early-2016 and half that again by the start of 2017. European troop numbers are planned to decline from 36,000 to 20,000 by mid-2016.
April – A 25% increase in NASA’s budget over three years is announced by the Obama administration and passes through congress in an appropriations bill. Plans for NASA to return to the moon by 2023 and for a Mars mission to occur by 2030 are expressed as ‘probable’. The announcement comes weeks after Chinese plans for a moon landing by 2025 are announced. Analysts point out that NASA’s increased annual budget of $25 billion is opposing the growing Chinese space agency’s budget of $4 billion, Russia’s of $3 billion and India’s at $2 billion.
July – To test their new JF-17 Thunder fighters and the resolve of the Indian military, the Chinese initiate an aerial skirmish over the disputed region of Arunachal Pradesh along India’s North-Eastern border. In a brief battle lasting less than half an hour the Chinese cause the scramble of an Indian air superiority squadron by violating Indian air space, they then retreat back into China and ambush the pursuing Indian fighters right along the border, 4 Indian fighters are shot down, three are damaged and one Chinese fighter is damaged. All parties immediately ‘urge restraint’, including the UN secretary general and the Obama administration.
August – President Obama announces a departmental reorganization to come into effect the next year.  About half of the department of energy, led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the Office of Science, is to be combined with the Environmental Protection Agency to form a new department called the Department of Climate Change and Renewable Energy. It is the first new cabinet level department to be formed in the United States since the Department of Homeland Security was formed by President Bush in 2002.
September – President Obama attends the opening of the Freedom Tower (1 World Trade Center) in New York. The building is opened on the 14th anniversary of the destruction of the original towers in 2001.
November – Joe Biden announces his retirement from politics and that he will not run for the Presidency in 2016.
December - The 2015 United Nations climate summit in Tokyo is preceded by the introduction of emissions trading schemes in Japan and South Korea. Another promise achieved is for most developed countries to phase out ‘heavy pollution’ coal power plants by 2020 and developing countries by 2030.
2016
January – Several prominent Democrats and Republicans announce their candidacies for their party’s nomination for President. Martin O’Malley, Chet Culver, Mark Udall, Robin Carnahan, Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh all campaign for the Democratic nomination as do Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, John Hoeven, David Vitter, Scott Brown, Paul Ryan and Dave Heineman for the Republican nomination.
Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley clinches the Democratic nomination and begins campaigning throughout the country, he chooses Senator Robin Carnahan as his Vice Presidential running mate.
Mitch Daniels clinches the Republican nomination and chooses house minority whip Eric Cantor as his running mate.
March – Following several months of speculation, discussion and voter polling, the Democrats introduce a bill into congress to immediately halt production of the penny and abolish it as legal tender at the start of 2017. It easily passes with over 70% of the vote in both houses.
April – India becomes the fourth nation to independently carry out a manned space mission. There is great media speculation about an ‘Asian space race’ taking off between China, India and other countries.
June – Troop numbers in Afghanistan stand at 27,000 American and 21,000 European soldiers. Both the Republican and Democratic nominees for President support a timetable for withdrawing the remaining troops from the largely stabilized country by the end of 2017, just over 16 years after soldiers were originally sent there early in the Bush Presidency.
August – Hurricane Igor, the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, causes heavy damage and loss of life in Haiti, Cuba and Florida.
September – Summer Arctic ice coverage falls below 4 million sq kilometers, smashing the previous record of 5.4 million set in 2012. Combined with Hurricane Igor, the new record sparks a fervent debate over how to deal with climate change. In response, the Obama administration and the O’Malley/ Carnahan ticket bring out a long since prepared bill to take advantage of public demand for legislation that ‘gets tough on climate change.’ The ‘Climate and Energy conservation Act’ that calls for much stricter pollution limits for vehicles, buildings and industry and further investments in green technologies is introduced into the lower house in October. However most Republicans and many Democrats oppose the legislation and negotiations on it quickly stall. The O’Malley/ Carnahan campaign promises to introduce and sign the act into law if elected to the Presidency.
November – With the economy once again booming and Obama’s approval ratings nudging 60% Martin O’Malley is elected President of the United States on the 8th of November in a fairly close election with 50.3% of the vote, with the Daniels/ Cantor ticket winning 48.6%. The Democrats lose 2 seats in the senate, maintaining a 51 seat majority and a small majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. President O’Malley campaigns on a platform of ‘returning the federal budget to surpluses not seen since the Clinton administration within three years, stabilizing the war-torn nations of Africa through diplomatic and economic engagement and developing the green energy independence America has for so long deserved’
2017
January – The Obama administration releases a report on renewable energy development that estimates wind power provides 7.5%, hydroelectric dams 6.1%, solar energy 1.5% and geothermal energy  0.4%  and other renewable sources 0.1% of US electricity generation, for a total of almost 16%. The incoming O’Malley administration vows to raise that amount to 20% by 2020 and 28% by 2025.
February – Hillary Clinton announces her retirement from politics.
September – Osama Bin Laden is sentenced to death and the sentence is carried out by lethal injection. Aged 60, he is killed 16 years and 4 days after the 911 attacks took place. There's More... There's More... There's More...