World War Three: The United States and China – 2023

Intro
Of course the obvious candidates to engage in a World War these days are the US and China. Below I’ve dreamt up a scenario where they are the primary combatants in a global war set in the early to mid-2020s. Now I’m no geopolitical expert, and what research I’ve done for this mainly comes from Wikipedia and for inspiration I might be relying too much on Tom Clancy novels, so don’t mistake my timeline below as anyone’s professional opinion. I’m just a liberally minded history buff and wannabe futurist with way too much time on my hands. Regardless, read on and please feel free to comment and critique. Making timelines and writing stories like these are a hobby of mine.

(All money terms are meant to be in 2011 dollars. The pictures below are obviously fake and are taken from historical events, they are purely for effect)

2012 – Barack Obama wins re-election, however the Republicans gain control of the Senate, giving them control of both houses of congress

2014 – Several major oil producing countries begin trading oil in currencies other than US dollars, partly because of this the US economy, which has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis, goes back into a shallow recession, unemployment rises from 8% back to 10%

2015 – Coalition forces have largely left Iraq and Afghanistan, however US defence spending continues at the high rate of around 5% of GDP

2015 – China floats the Yuan, Chinese economic growth slows from 10% to around 6% a year. The global economy grows slowly despite the strains of higher oil and commodity prices and the aftermath of the global financial crisis

2016 – A far-right former Republican governor (President X) heavily backed by the Tea Party is elected president

2017 – President X and the Republican controlled congress pass several major reforms of American domestic policy including the repeal of ‘Obamacare’, the dismantling of what regulations remain on the financial sector and many environmental regulations, gun control laws and labour laws and dramatically cutting taxes for the rich and corporations while toughening punishments for crimes such as drug abuse with lengthier jail sentences. The US budget deficit for 2018 shoots up from $700 billion to $1.2 trillion as the income gap in America widens at breakneck speed

2017 – Kabul falls to the Taliban and what remains of the Afghan government retreats into the north of the country. For most of the next decade several thousand Afghans die every year in the chaotic fighting that follows the withdrawal of coalition forces. By 2030 a somewhat less fundamentalist Islamic movement descended from the Taliban has largely gained control and takes some steps towards stabilizing and modernising the country

2017 – Conditions in Pakistan worsen due to the continued resurgence of the Taliban and economic woes. A military coup brings about a new government led by a general who turns to China to support his regime.  By 2020 Chinese support for the Pakistanis totals several billion dollars a year

2017 – The US, supported by Israel, bombs several sites in Iran believed to be at the centre of its nuclear program. The strikes are successful but ultimately lead to closer cooperation between Iran and China on rebuilding its program. Iran secretly tests its first nuclear weapon in 2021

2018 – Total US debt passes $20 trillion, crime and incarceration rates, the obesity rate, the unemployment rate and the infant mortality rate rise dramatically in response to the deregulating of the economy and other deteriorating economic factors. Social security cheques and welfare payments are no longer delivered to millions of citizens due to corruption and cuts to spending while police forces are privatised in many states and soon exist mainly to serve the bidding of the rich and powerful

The 2010s saw spiralling crime rates across America and much of the western world

2018-20 - US military spending rises to 8% of GDP with soldiers reinforcing embattled police forces in many southern states. President X announces increased funding, totalling $30 billion a year, to the completion of a ballistic missile shield to be completed by 2023 to ‘ensure America’s eternal greatness’. It would involve dozens of tracking satellites being placed in orbit and several early warning radars and anti-ICBM missile batteries being built or upgraded in countries like Greenland, Israel and Japan. In response China announces the creation of its own missile shield, to be completed about three years after the American one

2020 – Oil prices hit $200 a barrel, the US unemployment rate rises to 15% and chaos envelopes the more decrepit suburbs of many American cities. The Mexican drug war now extends far into the US with tens of thousands of violent deaths occurring every year in both countries

2020 – Facing another economic crisis and low approval ratings President X orders an invasion of Venezuela on the premise that Hugo Chavez is funding Mexican and Columbian terrorists but in reality the goal is to secure Venezuela’s oil supplies and to rally support among the Republican base at home. 300,000 troops occupy the country and an insurgency begins that results in the deaths of several thousand civilians and dozens of US soldiers every month

2020 – President X is re-elected despite widespread accusations of voter fraud, even most Tea Party activists have renounced him and are demanding his impeachment



A protest in Washington two weeks before President X is sworn in for a second term, the demonstration later grew violent and fifteen people were injured, January 2021

2021 – Demonstrations in Washington and other cities turn violent. Police fire on crowds on multiple occasions, killing or injuring hundreds of people in the months after the 2020 election

2022 – With economic conditions in the US still deteriorating, US debt is downgraded to little more than junk status. This, combined with Europe and Japan being almost as indebted, triggers a collapse of the global financial system. Within a year unemployment in Europe, Japan and the US is above 20% and they have entered a second great depression. This also stalls the economic growth of the BRIIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China) and leads to turmoil in many countries and the virtual collapse of the United Nations

2022 – The Global Depression brings about a major realignment of the world’s major power blocks. Economic turmoil causes the Saudi Arabian regime to collapse and the dissolution of the Arab League and OPEC. They are replaced by the League of Islamic states led by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt whose governments are more democratic but more anti-western and rely heavily on conservative Islamic principles. Widespread anti-western sentiment causes the Islamic League to turn to China as its main ally and the main customer of its oil. The entire League halts oil shipments to the US and EU soon after. This causes the oil starved European Union to turn to Russia for its resources. The Russians demand a high price for their oil and while the richest European states survive their less wealthy counterparts in Eastern Europe collapse. EU and Russian ‘peacekeeping forces’ soon vie for control in the Balkans with skirmishes between them soon threatening to escalate into all-out war.  
Meanwhile India, facing an alliance of China, Pakistan and the Arab world, seeks help from countries like Russia and Japan. Ties between these three disparate great powers grow significantly in response to the Chinese threat but remain relatively weak. The US also reaches out to India to cooperate in opposing China’s rise
The NATO alliance is strained but remains intact. The US, though busy with internal problems, its occupation of Venezuela and the construction of its missile shield prepares to reclaim its position as the world’s sole superpower. Tensions between the US government and the Islamic League reach boiling point when the Saudis expel the US ambassador and demand the closing of all US air bases in the country

February 14^th 2023 –Despite Chinese protests, the Americans launch an invasion of Saudi Arabia. The invasion is preceded by the bombing of Iranian military facilities to prevent them from effectively interfering. Fifteen US brigades spearhead the invasion, transported aboard the largest naval armada seen since WW2, and land on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula. Some 50 major amphibious assault ships land the initial assault troops at 5 different locations and more than 200 support ships carry the next few hundred thousand soldiers ashore. This fleet is escorted by 7 aircraft carriers, and dozens of cruisers, destroyers, frigates and submarines. It consists of 400 ships in total, carrying over a thousand aircraft, 150,000 sailors and almost half a million soldiers. The recently completed Ballistic Missile shield ensures no nuclear weapons are used by the Chinese, Pakistanis or Iranians in response to the invasion. Over a million American soldiers, most of them recently mobilized and stationed everywhere from Germany to the US mainland, await transport within months to the Middle East to reinforce the initial assaulting armies.
The invasion is accompanied by pre-emptive assaults by Israel, supported by American forces, into the West Bank, the Gaza strip, Lebanon and the Sinai to quickly secure territory to prevent an effective Islamic counter invasion towards Israel. Within a week the Suez Canal has been seized and the air forces of Egypt, Jordan and Syria effectively destroyed

A US carrier battle group, one of over a dozen, prepares to enter the Mediterranean Sea on its way to the Middle East on the eve of the war

March – The combined armies of Egypt, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and several other Islamic countries mobilize to retake Mecca and the rest of Saudi Arabia from the Americans. American, European and Israeli naval assets in the Mediterranean launch aerial bombardments of various Islamic countries to cripple their militaries. Chinese and Pakistani naval assets are deployed into the Indian Ocean, but keep their distance from the far more powerful American aircraft carriers. Their combined fleet strength, 3 aircraft carriers, more than 50 destroyers and frigates, dozens of submarines and dozens of support ships, is about a third the strength of the US force at best. Chinese aircraft and other weaponry are hastily bestowed upon the mobilizing Islamic armies and Chinese forces begin building up in Pakistan and Iran, though they do not yet directly engage US forces

April – The initial US invasion of Saudi Arabia is largely completed, though the Saudis have lit up many of their oil wells as Saddam Hussein did in Iraq in 1991. 600,000 US troops are now stationed in Saudi Arabia with a hundred thousand more arriving every month, they are equipped with over 2000 tanks and backed up by the huge US armada and over 3000 advanced aircraft. They move quickly towards Kuwait and Iraq and towards Jordan to link up with the Israelis. Already over 100,000 Muslim soldiers and civilians and 1000 US soldiers have died in the fighting. The Americans reinstall the old Saudi regime and immediately seek a ceasefire with the Islamic League and offer to leave Saudi Arabia within 3 years of peace being declared given the legitimacy of the Saudi regime is unchallenged. The League unanimously rejects this offer and they are supported by the vast majority of Muslims, including those in Saudi Arabia, who see the American invasion as naked western imperialism. Despite the rejection of the offer, President X declares ‘the end of major combat operations in Saudi Arabia’

May – Thousands of smashed Islamic tanks and aircraft smoulder in northern Saudi Arabia, the Sinai and in the deserts of Jordan and Syria. However, newer Chinese equipment is rushing to the battlefront and Chinese pilots, operating fighter jets almost as advanced as their US counterparts, are soon dog fighting and even providing ground support over Iraq and Iran. Slowly the daily casualties suffered by the Islamic armies’ drops from 10 times to below 5 times that of the Americans

US tanks cross the border from Saudi Arabia into Iraq, March 2023

Mid-2023 – Russia declares itself neutral in the conflict, though it does sell some arms to the fighting Islamic countries and, wary of the growing strength of the Chinese military, negotiates favourable trade deals with China over the selling of its oil. Japan also negotiates with the Russians for oil and, due mainly to its weakened though still formidable economic strength, also receives quite favourable terms. It does begin a program to modernise its armed forces should it be drawn into the conflict and presses for the US forces remaining on its soil to leave, a request that the Americans eventually grant. India, wary of the Chinese-Islamic alliance, strengthens its ties with both the Russians and Americans and denies the Chinese access to its ports, though this makes little difference since the Chinese have recently constructed a large naval base in Sri Lanka and have several naval outposts in eastern Africa. South Korea, Taiwan and Australia remain firm American allies and send small naval and air forces to the Persian Gulf

Late 2023 – The battle lines stabilize to the west of the Suez Canal, around Damascus (which remains in Muslim hands) and to the north of Baghdad, which has been occupied by the Americans. More than 300,000 Chinese troops, most of them support staff, though equipped with several thousand tanks and aircraft, have massed in Iran and Pakistan. Skirmishes directly between the Chinese and Americans escalate daily, tensions continue to rise

A Pakistani Al-Khalid Main Battle Tank moving to the battlefront in Iraq, September 2023

September – Fearing the completion of the Chinese ballistic missile shield within as little as two years, the Americans launch pre-emptive attacks on all major Chinese and Iranian satellites and rocket launching facilities with missiles and stealth bombers. The American strikes are a resounding success and down all orbiting Chinese military satellites and destroy most of China’s anti-ICBM missile batteries. The Chinese space station, housing 6 astronauts and not believed to have any military use, is spared. The Chinese immediately retaliate by launching hundreds of missiles to take down American military satellites. With these missiles being far greater in number and much smaller, few were neutralised in the earlier strike and even fewer are intercepted, consequently within weeks nearly all US military satellites have been destroyed. Again manned space stations and craft are spared. The initial strike also angers many countries and causes the Chinese to accelerate their build-up of forces in the Middle East. Chinese factories begin mobilizing for war and are soon churning out many hundreds of the latest tanks and aircraft and dozens of warships and submarines every month, matching and often exceeding US armaments production despite US annual military spending now rising past $1.5 trillion. Anti-US sentiment in China, which had previously been lukewarm and distrustful of the communist government, is now easily whipped up into a fever and the threat of the Chinese government collapsing has seemingly vanished. The main difference to the military situation in the Middle East is that both sides are suddenly fighting blind with all their surveillance satellites having been shot down. Although the US has an advantage in that they secretly agree with the European and Japanese Space Agency to utilize what surveillance capabilities they have. China pleads to use Russian or Indian satellites, but their requests are refused. China and Pakistan also begin to rapidly enlarge their nuclear arsenals. World oil prices have also hit a new high of $300 per barrel due to the crisis in the Middle East

This factory, one of the largest in Shenzhen, China, was producing 200 tanks a month by the end of 2023

December – A naval skirmish 1000km to the south-west of Sri Lanka results in the sinking of a Chinese submarine. In response Chinese aircraft, based in Iran and Sudan, and submarines mine the narrowest parts of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Aden. They suffer heavy losses in the process but by repeatedly mining the same areas quicker than the US can clear them they effectively immobilize US naval assets from travelling between the Mediterranean Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf

January 2024 – To prevent Chinese naval assets from interfering with US supply lines to the battlefronts of the Middle East the US imposes a blockade on the Chinese mainland. Five US aircraft carriers remain in a ring around the Arabian Peninsula while six others (with just two more in reserve that are undergoing refits), escorted by dozens of other warships, form a ring stretching from the South China Sea to Japan. South Korea, Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan aid the US in this blockade and give US warships permission to refuel in their waters. The Chinese navy already at sea is bottled up in the Bay of Bengal, however by the end of the year six new aircraft carriers and hundreds of new warships are planned to have been built, enough to maybe swing the balance of power away from the Americans

March 2024 – Deployed roughly along the Iran-Iraq border are some 2 million soldiers, a quarter of them Chinese and most of the rest Iranian with contingents from Turkey and other Muslim countries. They are equipped with over 3000 tanks and 2000 aircraft that have mainly been supplied by the Chinese. Opposing them in Iraq and Kuwait are half a million US soldiers, equipped with over 1500 tanks and 2500 aircraft. Several thousand Islamic and hundreds of Chinese and American soldiers die every week along the 1500km long battlefront. On March 26^th the Islamic League, acting against the advice of the more cautious Chinese, launches a massive assault to retake Baghdad and Kuwait, supported by Chinese forces. The offensive is smashed by the superior weaponry and firepower of the defending US armies who use the flat, open terrain of Iraq to their advantage. Within two weeks over a thousand Islamic/Chinese tanks and hundreds of aircraft lie destroyed and they have suffered over 50,000 casualties. The Americans have lost dozens of their own tanks and aircraft and suffered 6,000 casualties. The front soon returns to a stalemate, with the Americans refusing to budge from their positions on top of the Persian Gulf’s largest oil reserves

Iranian infantry sheltering in a trench in the aftermath of the first Islamic offensive, April 2024

Mid-2024 – Negotiations to end the conflict, mediated by India and Brazil, fail to produce a ceasefire agreement with the Islamic League still furious at the US occupation of their most holy lands and largest oil fields, the Chinese still determined to force the US out of the Middle East and regain its oil supplies and the US unwilling to give up the ground and oil deposits they’ve captured. Incidents of terrorism, exacerbated by the world’s generally abysmal economic conditions, skyrocket in many countries but most particularly the US and China. Chinese crackdowns against democratic protestors result in hundreds of deaths and many thousands of imprisonments, though Muslim minorities in China become far less troublesome due to China’s alliance with the Islamic League. The US domestic situation continues to deteriorate due to the immense cost of the war, the collapse of global trade and soaring commodity prices. The wealthy and the heads of the US government live in relative luxury as the rest of the country, aside from the growing military-industrial complex and some other industries such as prisons and corrupt drug companies, collapses around them

Mid-2024 – To date the war has resulted in the deaths of 300,000 Saudis, 100,000 Iraqis, 100,000 Iranians, tens of thousands of Egyptians, Palestinians and Syrians, tens of thousands of Chinese and 10,000 Americans and Israelis. A total of 700,000 in 15 months of war.
Elsewhere, the Russians quietly begin preparing their own ballistic missile defence system, to be completed by 2028

June 2024 – Another massive Islamic offensive is launched, this time through Syria, headed towards Israel. Greater numbers of advanced Chinese aircraft seriously challenges American aerial superiority for the first time. Within two weeks the Islamic/Chinese forces, numbering over half a million and riding some 3000 tanks, have advanced to the Golan Heights despite very heavy casualties. The Israelis, fearing imminent invasion, fire a barrage of fifteen tactical nuclear weapons with explosive yields of up to five kilotons each onto the heights, killing 20,000 Islamic soldiers and blunting their assault. The use of nuclear weapons provokes outrage worldwide and the Chinese immediately retaliate with tactical nuclear weaponry of their own against American ships in the Persian Gulf, destroying several US warships including an aircraft carrier. President X briefly considers using strategic nuclear weapons against the Iranians and Chinese, but despite the likelihoods of the Chinese being unable to defend against such a barrage, and the Americans likely being able to intercept any retaliatory attack, decides against it. High level emergency meetings between the American, Israeli, Chinese, Iranian and Pakistani governments (all of the fighting nuclear armed powers) fails to bring about an end to the war but a tenuous agreement to refrain from using nuclear weapons in the future is hastily agreed to. Many doubt the longevity of the agreement

Israeli photo taken at the start of the nuclear barrage on the Golan heights, June 2024

Mid-2024 – Both sides privately deem Israel too dangerous a battleground due to the high risk of nuclear weapons being used again. The front there stabilizes while action elsewhere intensifies. Iraq remains a fierce battleground with US forces bloodily repulsing Islamic and Chinese assaults several times a month. Hundreds of new planes and tanks arrive at the battlefront every week from Chinese factories while barely half that number arrives from American factories half way around the world. By the end of 2024 some 6000 US aircraft in the region are facing over 10000 mainly Chinese aircraft with a similar ratio of tanks on the ground. The 1.2 million US soldiers deployed across the Arabian Peninsula find themselves increasingly strained, despite their technological advantages, to hold back the determined Islamic and Chinese forces

September 16^th 2024 – Determined to break the US naval blockade, the Chinese issue an ultimatum for the Americans to exit their waters immediately or face ‘massive consequences’. The Americans, who have long been preparing for an attack and know its rough details in advance, instead launch pre-emptive strikes against Chinese naval facilities and assets. In two days aircraft operating from the seven carriers the US has in theatre, plus hundreds of aircraft based in South Korea and Taiwan, have flown more than 2000 sorties against the Chinese coastline. All eight newly or soon to be completed Chinese aircraft carriers are destroyed or damaged and dozens of other warships are destroyed. The Chinese launch their attack anyway, firing hundreds of missiles designed to target and destroy enemy warships and throwing what remains of their surface fleet and their largely intact submarine forces into the fray. Chinese forces from the Bay of Bengal pass through the straits of Malacca and attack the Americans from the rear. At the end of a week of bloody battles of a scale not seen even in the Pacific theatre of World War Two, the US navy disengages and withdraws to a new line several hundred kilometres to the east. Having lost two carriers and with three more making for Japan or Hawaii for repairs, the remaining two are judged to be too valuable to risk within 1500km of the Chinese coastline, including the entirety of the South China Sea, within range of the majority of China’s anti-ship missiles. However the Chinese pay dearly for this success, their surface fleet is reduced to barely 30 major operational vessels and just one functioning aircraft carrier. They have lost over 2000 aircraft and 150 vessels while the Americans have lost about 800 aircraft and 30 vessels. Overall about 50,000 sailors and airmen have died. American submarines, having torn apart almost a hundred of their inferior Chinese counterparts for the loss of only 13 of their own, continue to patrol close to the Chinese coastline. They become America’s main weapon to deny the Chinese a clear route through the South China Sea

A US aircraft carrier afire during the Battle of the South China Sea, September 2024

October – With the Chinese navy having withdrawn from the Indian Ocean, a small joint American/Australian task force bombs and then seizes the Chinese naval base at Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka. Effectively cutting off Chinese supply lines to Africa

Late-2024 – With its navy crippled and at least two years away from being effectively rebuilt, the Chinese begin large-scale bombing campaigns of US and allied assets in Taiwan and South Korea. Japan initially is not targeted as its government has been hesitant to offer anything more than naval refuelling facilities and satellite surveillance to the US navy. Over a thousand Chinese sorties a week are soon being flown over Taiwan and South Korea with the US air force having been driven from the skies. By the end of the year a thousand tonnes of bombs are being dropped nearly every single night in the most intense bombing campaign since the Vietnam War

Chinese bombing of Taiwan had soon reduced much of the country to ruins, January 2025

October 2024 – President X steps down after two terms in office, his Vice President, President Y, succeeds him, once again there is widespread accusations of voter fraud with President X’s approval ratings believed to be down to 20% at the end of his term in office (though official polls which few believe say 50%). Powerful security forces and widespread censorship prevents isolated protests from growing into a full-blown revolution. The only good news for the US economy is that trickles of oil begin flowing from Saudi oil wells that survived the US invasion undamaged, preventing the price of oil in the US from rising above $250 a barrel. It is estimated it will take about five years for most of Saudi Arabia’s oil production to recover under US administration

January 2025 – A coup in Japan, driven by fears the current government has been too timid in dealing with China over the last two years of conflict, sees a far more nationalist Japanese government come to power. Armaments production is greatly expanded (and helps to bring down the unemployment rate) and the Japanese air force begins flying air superiority missions over South Korea and Taiwan to intercept Chinese bombers. In retaliation, the Chinese promptly shoot down all of Japan’s military satellites and use aircraft to mine (largely unsuccessfully) Japanese harbours

Early-2025 – Two years of exhaustive war causes widespread stagnation of the economies of the US, China, the Islamic states and other countries. The region stretching from Syria to western Iran has seen about a third of its population of 50 million flee in the last two years while hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died. About 20,000 American soldiers have been killed and 80,000 more wounded. Some 20,000 aircraft operate in the Middle East, about two-thirds of them Chinese. Some 10,000 aircraft and 8,000 tanks have been destroyed, with about a fifth of the total having been American. Europe, having stayed out of the war and undertaken large-scale efforts to reduce its dependency on oil, begins to economically recover. The unemployment rate in France and Germany drops below 15% for the first time in three years. Russia’s economic expansion continues and its military undergoes a rapid modernisation program because of concerns it could be dragged into the war in the Middle East. However the US and China, having devoted everything to the fight for Persian Gulf oil, continue the titanic struggle while the fury of the Islamic world at the west refuses to abate

Mid-2025 – A bombing in Al-Riyad kills the Saudi Monarch and many senior Saudi government officials, the Arabian insurgency worsens and American tactics to oppress it become increasingly brutal

Mid-2025 – The Americans offer a ceasefire whereby American forces would immediately withdraw to the northern borders of Saudi Arabia, ending its occupations of Jordan, Iraq and Kuwait, and promptly draw down their strength to that of peacekeeping forces remaining in Saudi Arabia to protect the monarchy from insurgents. The Chinese and Islamic League flatly reject the offer and accelerate preparations for a final ‘God’s Offensive’ (People’s Offensive in the Chinese media, Great Jihad in America) to drive the Americans out of the Middle East. UN diplomats frantically try to end the war before the deadlocks in Iraq or the East China Sea are broken and either side once again resorts to nuclear weapons to avert defeat

Chinese tank crews parade in Beijing weeks before they are to leave for the Middle East, April 2025

June 2025 – Three million Muslim and a million Chinese troops, equipped with over 5,000 tanks and supported by 10,000 aircraft, launch the largest blitzkrieg since World War Two (and arguably the biggest ever) into Iraq. After inflicting heavy casualties on the attackers the Americans withdraw from Baghdad to a new perimeter inside Kuwait. There US airstrikes and artillery are able to stop the offensive. Within weeks most of Iraq and Jordan have fallen to the Chinese and Islamic League, though they have suffered 100,000 casualties and once again have to halt to rebuild their shattered air and armoured forces. The retreat of US forces also leads to the US navy withdrawing from the Persian Gulf after Chinese missiles fired from Basra cripples two guided missiles cruisers

Mid-2025 – After five years of fighting a ceasefire is signed between the US installed government of Venezuela and rebel armies in the south of the country. By the end of the year most US forces have left the country and 150,000 soldiers have been redeployed to the Middle East

Late-2025 – Aiming to prevent the formation of another ‘God’s Offensive’ the Americans change tactics by launching ever larger scale bombing raids into Iran and other nearby countries to cripple Islamic and Chinese supply lines. In total over the last two years over 200,000 tons of bombs have been dropped on Taiwan and 100,000 tons on South Korea by the Chinese air force while a similar amount have been dropped on Islamic countries by the American and Israeli air forces

August 2025 – Myanmar, with assistance from China, tests a nuclear device. Chinese air force units are now deployed overseas in Myanmar, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Africa

September 18^th 2025 – Pakistani funded Jihadist terrorists detonate a series of truck bombs in New Delhi and Mumbai, killing 600 people including several members of India’s parliament in the deadliest terrorist attack since 9/11. India-Pakistani relations, which have grown increasingly tense since open negotiations broke down after the US invasion of Saudi Arabia, dramatically worsen and the two countries stand on the brink of war. Indian and US military chiefs have a series of high level meetings to write up contingency plans on how to neutralise Pakistan’s military

The site of one of the truck bombings in New Delhi, September 2025

September 29^th 2025 – Having received US guarantees that it will protect India from enemy ICBMs with its anti-ballistic systems stationed aboard AEGIS cruisers now sitting just off the Indian coast and at sites in the Indian Ocean. The Indian military launches a massive series of long-planned, coordinated strikes against Pakistan intended to cripple its nuclear arsenal, missile launching facilities and naval, air and armoured forces. More than 2,000 short and medium range ballistic missiles and a thousand bomber sorties simultaneously strike targets across Pakistan. Pakistan’s military capabilities are quickly overwhelmed. Within days most of its air force, navy, ballistic missile forces and nuclear arsenal have been destroyed.
The Pakistanis are still able to launch several nuclear missiles towards major Indian cities within hours of the Indian attack. However US ships shoot down all 22 launched missiles before they have struck their targets.
Immediately after the strike, Indian military spearheads advance into Kashmir and along most of the Pakistani-Indian frontier. Their aim in Kashmir is to secure India’s territorial claims there while elsewhere it is merely to annihilate the Pakistani military. The Indians hope to avoid a complete occupation of Pakistan or a war with China. They announce their intention only to militarily take the Pakistani parts of Kashmir though they still lay claim to the Chinese occupied areas.
More than 200,000 Pakistanis are estimated to have been killed within a week of the opening of the offensive, about a third of them civilians

October 2025 – With its biggest ally collapsing, threatening its prospects in the Middle East, the Chinese weigh their options. They know a nuclear strike would likely fail and certainly lead to catastrophic retaliation they would be powerless against, yet don’t want to be seen by their Islamic allies to be abandoning them. They decide to declare a no-fly zone over Pakistan and to bolster border defences with India while continuing the campaign in the Middle East. In the next month 500 Chinese, 700 Indian and 100 American aircraft are destroyed over Pakistan and border skirmishes to the east and west of Nepal along the Indian-Chinese frontier occur daily. The Indian army for the most part halts after advancing up to 100km beyond the Pakistani border, knowing that an occupation of a country of 250 million hostile Muslims could never end well.
Meanwhile the Indian navy, which has four modern aircraft carriers, bolsters US naval patrols in the Indian Ocean, allowing the Americans to redeploy two more of their carriers from the Middle East to the Pacific. At this point the Americans have four carriers deployed near the Middle East and five in the Pacific with four being repaired or refitted and three under construction. The Chinese have two operational aircraft carriers which are bottled up in their home waters in Shanghai and Hong Kong and four more being repaired or under construction that are due to be operational by early 2026

Late 2025 – Suffering from its heavy losses in Iraq and Pakistan and from its ineffective bombing campaigns against Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, the US naval blockade and sensing its powerlessness to retaliate to an Indian or American nuclear strike, the Chinese leadership seeks and acceptable resolution to the conflict that has now taken 7 million lives, including 200,000 Chinese. The Americans too, facing increasing instability at home that is bordering on an outright insurgency, struggling to rebuild their strength after their recent reversals in the Middle East and failing in their attempts to calm the Saudi insurgency while redeveloping its oil production, want an end to the costly conflict that has claimed 40,000 American lives. There is a lull in Iraq as private negotiations between the two superpowers try to reach a ceasefire.
The Islamic League demands unequivocally the withdrawal of US forces from Saudi Arabia and refuses to negotiate without the US first agreeing to those terms. The Chinese demand a US withdrawal from Saudi Arabia and the reinstalling of the revolutionary ‘people’s government’ that seized power in 2022. The US offers to withdraw from Saudi Arabia provided a force of 100,000 peacekeepers, preferably European, occupy the country with the current old Saudi regime intact, with elections to be held within 2 years. Islamic pressure causes China to reject the offer and continue preparations for another ‘God’s Offensive’

March 27^th 2026 – With its naval, air and armoured forces rebuilt, the Chinese and Islamic forces simultaneously launch a naval offensive into the Pacific and another armoured offensive into Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

A newly constructed Chinese aircraft carrier steams out of Shanghai to partake in the Battle of the Philippine Sea, March 2026

March 27^th 2026 – The Chinese naval armada consists of six carriers, over fifty other surface vessels including 7 guided missile cruisers and forty submarines, nearly all of which have been constructed, repaired or converted from other ships in the past year and a half in a monumental industrial feat and at a cost of almost $200 billion. Vietnam has given in to Chinese pressure for it to dock ships at its ports but not to station troops or aircraft on its soil while the Philippines have allowed American ships to do the same. Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, all countries with economic ties with both the US and China and with large Muslim populations, remain strictly neutral though their support is requested by both sides. The Chinese have the advantage of air superiority up to 2000km to the south and east of the Chinese mainland due to the proximity of their huge land-based air force. Only over Japan do the Americans have air superiority in East Asia, otherwise they must rely on carrier based aircraft or on squadrons based in Guam, their largest naval base in the eastern Pacific located 2500 south-east of China, or even in Australia.  
The most formidable part of the Allied blockade consists of fifty American, Australian and Japanese submarines arrayed in a screen just over 1000km from the Chinese coast, waiting in ambush for the Chinese fleet. Five aircraft carriers with dozens of escorting vessels are stationed about another 1000km back in a wide ark from the southern Philippines to just east of Tokyo. Overall 198 vessels, with a total tonnage of 2.9 million tons, are active in the Eastern Pacific. Both sides know a battle on the scale of World War Two’s Battle of Leyte Gulf is imminent.
On the night of the 28^th of March the Chinese fleet sails out of the Taiwan strait, where it can operate with relative impunity, and heads towards the open sea between Taiwan and the Philippines where its anti-submarine forces have spent months methodically clearing American submarines. Its submarines, of a newer design that is almost on par with their American counterparts though with much less experienced crews, are supported by dozens of anti-submarine aircraft that clear a path in an arc some 300km forward of the main fleet as it advances slowly to maximise the chances of detecting enemy submarines.
On the night of the 29^th and the morning of the 30^th the first contact is made between the two armadas. In a series of cat-and-mouse style encounters six American and two Japanese submarines are sunk, all but one of them by aircraft, while the Chinese have lost twelve submarines, three destroyers and four frigates. The Chinese goal, unknown to the Americans, is to advance to within 1000km of Guam so the Chinese ballistic missile cruisers can fire a barrage of missiles to destroy all American facilities there. They must proceed this close to negate the effectiveness of American anti-ballistic missile defences so their strike has a high chance of succeeding.
The 30^th and 31^st of March sees concentrated American missile and air strikes against the Chinese fleet. By now the Chinese mainland is 1500km distant and so only a few dozen land-based fighters are able to help patrol the space over the Chinese carriers at any given time. One carrier is sunk while another is damaged, though it cannot yet leave the main fleet to turn for home for fear of enemy submarines, two missile cruisers are damaged and several smaller vessels sunk or damaged. Two more Japanese submarines are sunk. 45 Allied and 80 Chinese aircraft are shot-down while the majority of the more than 300 Allied missiles fired towards them have been intercepted by Chinese anti-air destroyers.
On the 1^st of April the Chinese fleet, despite increasingly daring Allied actions to stop them, has advanced to within 1000km of Guam, from which most American aircraft and ships have hastily retreated. A barrage of 550 sub-sonic cruise missiles is launched towards the island and within a little over an hour nearly all major port, airport, radar and command facilities on the islands have been accurately targeted and destroyed. 120 of the missiles have been intercepted by American ships and anti-air batteries on and near the islands but Guam as a base has been effectively knocked out for many months to come.
On the return trip two more Chinese ships and three submarines as well as two American submarines are lost. Overall the Chinese have lost 28 ships (220,000 tons), 130 aircraft and 6,000 sailors and airmen while the Allies have lost 12 submarines (90,000 tons), 60 aircraft and 2,000 sailors and airmen. The Chinese fleet returns home battered but intact while the Allies now lack a significant naval base in the 7,000km gap between Tokyo and Brisbane, greatly increasing the cost of maintaining the blockade

March 27^th 2026 – Coordinating their assault with thousands of insurgents behind the American lines, the Chinese extensively deploy exotic weaponry such as EMP devices, thermobaric weapons, recently developed automated drones, small remotely piloted robots armed with machine guns and rocket launchers and even a handful of experimental railguns to attack American positions. Similarly potent weapons are in use by American forces.
Within a week the massive weight of the Chinese/Islamic assault and the confusion that has permeated through the stricken American lines causes American commanders to order a ‘general retreat’. Within a week Chinese spearheads have occupied the cities of Kuwaiti City, Hafar Al-Batin, Khafji and Jubail and are approaching Damman, the largest city in eastern Saudi Arabia, the heart of its oil industry and the main centre of US military facilities. Several million soldiers and thousands of tanks, guns and aircraft continue to pour into Saudi Arabia from Iraq. American aircraft have destroyed over a thousand Chinese and Islamic tanks but have suffered hundreds of losses and before long their airbases are being overrun and most of the American air force has been forced to retreat hundreds of kilometers to the south-west in the direction of Riyadh

Thousands of American, Chinese and Islamic vehicles and corpses stretch in a 1000km long line from Kuwait to Qatar in the aftermath of the Second God’s Offensive, April 2026

April 2026 – In Washington the scale of the unfolding disaster prompts President Y to call the Chinese ambassador into the oval office. Across Virginia hundreds of thousands of protestors, many thousands of them armed, are converging on Washington and demanding an end to the war and the removal of President Y’s government. Over several hours of tense negotiations during which the distant sounds of gunfire can be heard as hundreds of ‘rebels’ and police and soldiers are killed, a ceasefire arrangement is finally agreed upon, which Islamic delegates agree to support only after the Chinese threaten to withdraw from the conflict entirely if they refuse to accept it.
In a nationally televised press conference, an emotional President Y announces the end of combat operations in Saudi Arabia, within hours the fighting in Saudi Arabia and around Washington has ceased, though hundreds of people are still dying every day in rioting throughout the US as has been the case for many months, and instability continues in Pakistan

April 2026 – Delegates from the United States, Israel, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, the Saudi government, China and all the members of the Islamic League meet in Geneva to draw up a permanent treaty to end the conflict which has by now claimed an estimated 10 million lives. In the end the US government, facing what many are already describing as a civil war back home, agrees to the reinstalling of the revolutionary Islamic Saudi government and the withdrawal of all its forces from the Middle East, Japan and the end of the naval blockade on China. The Chinese and Islamic League agree to hold democratic elections in Saudi Arabia within two years and to respect the territorial sovereignty of Israel, though it has to end its occupations of the Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem and all other Islamic countries and sign mutual non-aggression pacts with its neighbors. What remains of the Pakistani government signs a non-aggression treaty with India and, under Chinese pressure as they do not want to needlessly antagonize India, agrees to strict limits on the power of its military and for free and fair elections to be held within three years. The Indians, Chinese, Europeans and Japanese pledge large sums of foreign aid and loan guarantees to rebuild infrastructure in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran.
To many people’s surprise, the last major sticking point in the negotiations is the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty. With the Chinese in a dominant negotiating position they demand that Taiwan’s government officially recognize China’s authority. In an emergency meeting Taiwan’s government requests help from the Americans and Japanese, but they refuse to guarantee Taiwan’s sovereignty for fear that the war will continue and the remaining American forces in Saudi Arabia, numbering over a million, will be crushed. Having suffered extensive bomb damage over the last three years and with its military all but annihilated, the Taiwanese are forced to tacitly accept the Chinese demands, agreeing to a conference in Hong Kong to negotiate a settlement. The Taiwanese hope to remain as autonomous as possible

Mid-2026 – The state of Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital, is recognized by Israel and the United States and most other countries. Taiwan is declared the third Chinese ‘Special Administrative Division’ (the others are Hong Kong and Macao) though its government remains intact and responsible for most domestic decisions. US forces hastily withdraw from the Middle East even as they still experience frequent insurgent attacks, especially in the area around Mecca. The Chinese begin withdrawing their forces while the Islamic armies first liberate Mecca and then are gradually disbanded. Upon the liberation of the city several hundred Saudi officials are rounded up, often by Islamic insurgents, and most of them are later shot or imprisoned without trial. In Pakistan an Islamic insurgency, opposing foreign interference, begins to take root, mirroring the Taliban insurgency of a decade earlier. After months of violence fresh elections are held in the United States in September 2026 in which the newly founded Liberal Party, advocating a left-of-centre approach with the primary goals of ‘restoring democracy’, combating corporate corruption and dismantling the military-industrial complex, wins the largest portion of the vote