A future timeline of Africa

I detailed in an earlier post - http://futuregeopoliticalscenarios.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/the-coming-african-world-war.html how Africa was bound to be a place of great violence and chaos throughout the 21st century as its population quadruples, it develops economically, endures revolution after revolution politically and its newly rising powers squabble amongst themselves for the continent's dwindling resources, many of which, like its oil reserves, have already been greatly plundered by the west.

I would like to elaborate here on how these events might unfold.

Speculation of this nature is by definition going to be imprecise, but we can still take a decent stab. Imagine if you will someone trying to predict the future of Europe in the 20th century back in 1900. They could not possibly have known that a World War would break out in 1914, and be followed up by an even bloodier sequel in 1939, but they could at least have predicted such a war breaking out at some point, and further guessed at its result. It was possible to observe the rise of such powers as Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia in 1900 and extrapolate that they would come into conflict with older powers like Britain and France at some point. The growing trend away from monarchy and towards democracy would also have been apparent.

Indeed, science fiction author H.G.Wells famously wrote a book in 1933 entitled 'The Shape of Things to Come' that speculated on how the future might unfold, and was startlingly accurate in predicting that a Second World War would break out by - drum roll please - Germany invading Poland, in 1940!

After that point however, Wells' predictions swiftly proceed off the beaten track. He predicted that the two countries would be about evenly matched and thus the war would be of a static, western front-like nature fought in trenches, and would last for an inconclusive ten years (rather than the 17-day blitzkrieg it took in reality). Meanwhile the Great Depression (in its early stages at the time of the book's writing) continues to worsen and causes the collapse of most nation-states, followed by large portions of humanity starving in the 1950s.

Eventually, the world's airlines (supposedly the only groups with real global reach) get together and start rebuilding the world under a benevolent dictatorship. All religion is eradicated and English is made the worldwide Lingua Franca. Eventually, around the year 2059, the dictatorship is peacefully overthrown and the world happily moves forward into utopia...

Anyway, reflecting my own somewhat more cynical (or might that be less cynical? I'm not quite sure, maybe just less winding...) view on the world then Wells, but in much the same format, I shall have now a stab as to what a future timeline of certain African countries might look like. We'll start with Africa's most populous country, one that is predicted to contain nearly a billion people by the end of this century - Nigeria.

2010s - Citing irreconcilable religious differences, growing inequality and a history of violence, a movement forms in the country calling for the northern Islamic half to secede

2018 - After widespread protests, the Northern half declares a new government, the Republic of Sokoto, which goes unrecognized by a majority of world powers, many of whom see it as a dangerous Islamist state, reminiscent of Taliban-era Afghanistan

2019-27 - Backed by western support, Nigeria invades Sokoto, suspending democracy in the process. Five million people die in the resultant war to unify the country which rages for eight years, the vast majority of them Muslim civilians

2030s - With the war over, a growing populist movement in Nigeria calls for the overthrow of the current government, citing rampant corruption, and calling for a return to democracy

2035 - A revolution topples the government, and a new, much more populist government is installed. Declaring a philosophy of 'Nigeria for Nigerians' it calls for a halting of oil exports to the west, whose influence it sees as dangerous, in favor of exports to other countries throughout the developing world, including China and India, Incompetence, corruption and economic instability also plague the new government, with elections under its tenure still widely considered biased and unfair

2039-44 - The United States launches an invasion of Nigeria, claiming the government's belligerence is a threat to world peace. The war however turns into 'another Vietnam' and in the next five years over a million Nigerians and twenty thousand American soldiers are killed before the US finally withdraws

2046 - With the withdrawal of the Americans a new, even more belligerent government comes to power. Fearing further western interference, it hatches a plan to arm Nigeria with nuclear weapons. The first such weapon is tested in 2049, and within a few years dozens of such weapons have secretly been constructed

2050s - Now nuclear-armed and desperately short of resources to sustain its swelling population, which has recently passed half a billion, the Nigerian military launches increasingly large incursions of neighboring countries, ostensibly for peacekeeping purposes, but mostly to secure resources for the country's economy, including farmland to feed its swelling population. From Mali to Sudan, Nigerian military occupations artificially cause famines on a scale not seen in Africa in decades. Over thirty million are estimated to starve over this period

2062-67 - Displaying evidence of Nigeria's nuclear program to the world and declaring the country's regime 'the most brutal since Nazi Germany' the United States and European Union lead a coalition of UN nations in another invasion of Nigeria. Most of the country's nuclear weapons are either quickly destroyed or secured, though several are detonated in cities once occupied by the UN forces, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians and tens of thousands of foreign soldiers. Over twenty million people die in the five-year long war which engulfs much of central and northern Africa

2067-90s - The UN occupation of defeated Nigeria lasts decades. Democracy is gradually imposed on the country, which by 2100 has stabilized and become a relatively prosperous republic

This scenario may sound pessimistic, but when one considers the history of Nigeria over the last fifty years since its independence, it is really no more than a continuation of current trends, i.e. -

1960 - Nigeria gains its independence from Britain

1966-79 - A military junta seizes power in the country, suspending the fledgling democracy

1967-70 - The region of Biafra declares its independence, but is unrecognized by world powers. Over the next three years a civil war rages in Nigeria to reunify the country, between one and three million die in the resultant struggle

1983-98 - After a brief return to democratic rule, a second period of military rule follows. Even after democracy is restored in 1999, the country is marred by rampant crime, corruption and ethnic violence

2001-present - Coinciding with the introduction of Sharia law in most of Nigeria's Muslim provinces, an increasingly radical Islamist insurgency begins which claims over 15,000 lives throughout the country

2004-present~ Conflict in the Niger delta over oil production also claims thousands of lives

Ethnic clashes between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria have escalated in recent years, especially since the formation of the terrorist group 'Boko Haram' in 2002. There is also a precedent for the Islamic portion of an African country in the region declaring its independence - that of Mali, which in April 2012 saw its northern half breakaway to form the newly declared state of 'Azawad' (though a French intervention the next year saw the country reunited, violence continues...).

From all this we should conclude that a religiously-motivated civil war in Nigeria in the near future should not be ruled out, nor the sorts of violent swings between conservative right-wing and populist left-wing governments that have so dominated western history in recent centuries. There is little reason to believe Nigeria will escape such traumatic events.

Another example we could look at is Ethiopia, as well as its surrounding countries. Take this timeline for instance -

2017 - Construction is finished on the 'Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam', a project opposed by Egypt, on the Nile river just west of the Sudanese-Ethiopian border (A real dam being built, and a potential source of conflict - http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/03/15/egypt_ethiopia_at_loggerheads_over_nile_river.html)

2020s - A severe drought occurs across north-eastern Africa, affecting Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt most heavily. Egypt's government demands greater amounts of water be allowed to flow through the Renaissance Dam' to provide much needed relief to Egypt's population. The Ethiopian government refuses

2022 - Citing a 1959 treaty granting Egypt the use of most of the Nile's water supply, and declaring the dam illegal, Egypt bombs the dam, destroying it and causing a major flood downriver that kills over 50,000 people, mostly in Sudan. The bombing draws widespread condemnation, though Egypt's actions are supported by the Arab League. Violent protests begin in Egypt against the military government, in a near-repeat of the Arab Spring, which are violently repressed

2023 - With Ethiopia vowing to rebuild the dam, Egypt launches a full-scale invasion of the region. Sudanese forces are able to put up only token resistance, and within a few weeks Egyptian forces have occupied the site. Over time the Egyptian army comes to occupy much of northern and western Ethiopia

2023-2032 - The Egyptian occupation lasts almost ten years, resisting poorly organised attacks by Ethiopian and Sudanese forces. Further attempts by Ethiopia to dam the river upstream are repeatedly bombed by the Egyptian air force. About a million people are estimated to have died from the war and related causes in this period

2032 - With the costs of the occupation becoming unsustainable, Egypt plans to withdraw but declares that in the occupied areas a referendum will be held on separating from Ethiopia and creating a new country. Amid widespread accusations of fraud, the referendum proceeds, with 70% apparently choosing independence in the new state of Amhara

Mid 2030s - As the Egyptian military gradually withdraws, increasing levels of unrest grip the new state, which remains largely unrecognized outside the Arab world and is yet to hold free and fair elections. A great deal of resentment for the occupation is felt by the state's Christian majority (making up about 80% of the population) against the reigning Muslim minority

Late 2030s - Violence erupts into outright revolution, with angry mobs of Christians massacring Muslims throughout the region. Hundreds of thousands are killed and millions flee, largely depopulating the region's Islamic minority

2038 - Amhara is re-absorbed back into Ethiopia, but the violence continues, this time against the largely Islamic regions in the east of the country. Religious violence ties into ethnic tensions against the Somali minority in the country. With a level of brutality rivaling that of the Rwandan genocide, angry Christian mobs carry out a sustained campaign against Somali villages. With a year nearly a million have been killed and much of the Somali population has fled across the border into Somalia and Somaliland proper

2040-48 - A UN-led intervention restores order, though efforts take a number of years. A democratic government is installed, with the first regular elections held from 2045

2050s onwards - Conflict between Christian Ethiopia and its Islamic neighbours continues for decades, but gradually subsides as the region modernises. Ethiopia's economy recovers meanwhile, largely thanks to a great deal of Chinese investment. Thousands of factories are set up over the country, taking advantage of cheap local labor. By 2065 Ethiopia is one of the world's top ten automobile manufacturers

Late 2060s - A severe global recession greatly affects the Ethiopian economy, creating millions of unemployed and causing crime rates to skyrocket. Movements on the political extremes gain power

2069 - A right-wing government seizes power, soon gaining the loyalty of the military and suspending further elections. Using the Somalis as a scapegoat, and citing historical grievances, Ethiopia launches an invasion of both Somalia and Somaliland, claiming it as a humanitarian intervention (both countries are admittedly very poor and backwards, with unstable governments still practicing Sharia law). Local Somalis are soon being rounded up and, starting with violent criminals and homosexuals, put in camps where they are sterilized en masse and routinely denied needed healthcare, having been deemed 'racially inferior' by the Ethiopian government, and indoctrinated with Christian teachings. Ethiopia soon annexes the entire region, settling it with millions of colonists

2070s - Democracy is gradually restored, but voting rights are not granted to Somalis and other 'inferiors' at first

2094 - In a repeat of the end of the apartheid era in South Africa a century before, Somalis and other minorities are finally granted equal voting rights with the rest of Greater Ethiopia's citizens, though by now they are a small minority making up only a few percent of the population. The crimes of the old regime are eventually condemned, though by then it is far too late to reverse its actions

So there you go, an Ethiopia whose coming century is dominated by regional water wars, religious conflict, economic booms and busts, and political extremes leading to ethnic cleansing. Does it sound too implausible? I feel it is all possible.

There are many other countries we could talk about of course. Nearly all major African countries have borders that have a fair chance of being redrawn - violently or peacefully, in the coming century as the continent finally sorts itself out. Just take one look at an ethnic map of the continent for instance -

Put simply, everywhere where a national border does not correlate with an ethnic or religious one, there is a potential conflict in the making. This says nothing of the political, economic and cultural divides that grip the region as well. I've heard suggestions that as many as a hundred new nations could be created in Africa throughout the 21st century. That sounds a bit steep to me, but South Sudan was clearly an early example of this trend. Somaliland and Azawad are other attempts that may eventually bare fruit. Another possibility was evident during the Libyan Civil War in 2011 when, for a period of several months, it looked like Libya might split into two countries, a western half still ruled by Tripoli and a new eastern half ruled from Benghazi.

While merely having people from two or more ethnic groups living within a nation is not necessarily a harbinger of conflict, the precedent I am merely citing here is Europe in the 20th century. Take a look at this map of Europe's ethnic divisions - 

Its not hard to see that, especially compared to the Europe of 1914, the continent today is much more precisely divided along ethnic lines. Whereas then a few large empires, notably the German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman, controlled much of the continent between them, dozens of new nations now exist. In fact, this process of ethnic division is still ongoing. Breakaway regions like South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia and Transnistria in Moldova are still seeking greater international recognition, and as recently as 2008 we saw a further step in the breakup of the former Yugoslavia with the independence (again, partially recognized) of Kosovo. Even the current crisis in the Crimea has strong ethnic undertones, with the Crima being a largely Russian speaking part of Ukraine.

To conclude, this is just one major reason why I am pessimistic about Africa's future, and I don't think anyone should be shocked if we see the region tear itself apart multiple times in the coming century. Chances are the exact nature of these coming conflicts will only vaguely resemble the timelines I've drawn up above. Either way, I doubt the history books that will eventually be written about 21st century Africa will remain conspicuously blank. I feel the continent is in for at least as rough a ride now as Europe was at the dawn of the 20th century.